20260331-招银国际-华润饮料-02460.HK-Expect_earnings_to_bottom_out_in_FY26E_6页_1019kb

CR Beverage (2460 HK) Summary

Core Content

CR Beverage (2460 HK) is a China-based beverage company that experienced a decline in FY25 financial performance, with revenue and net profit both falling significantly compared to the previous year. The company is expected to see a bottoming out of earnings in FY26E, driven by ongoing restructuring efforts and a recovery in sales. Analysts maintain a BUY rating with an updated target price of HK$11.09, reflecting a 6% cut from the previous target price due to FX changes and earnings adjustments.

Key Financial Performance

• Revenue:

  • FY25: RMB 11.0bn (-18.6% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB 12.4bn (+12.7% YoY)
  • FY27E: RMB 13.7bn (+10.1% YoY)
  • FY28E: RMB 14.9bn (+8.8% YoY)

• Net Profit:

  • FY25: RMB 990mn (-39.8% YoY)
  • FY26E: RMB 1,177mn (+19.5% YoY)
  • FY27E: RMB 1,427mn (+21.2% YoY)
  • FY28E: RMB 1,637mn (+14.7% YoY)

• EPS (Reported):

  • FY25: RMB 0.41
  • FY26E: RMB 0.49
  • FY27E: RMB 0.59
  • FY28E: RMB 0.68

• Consensus EPS:

  • FY26E: RMB 0.51
  • FY27E: RMB 0.59
  • FY28E: RMB 0.62

• P/E Ratio:

  • FY26E: 15.9x
  • FY27E: 13.1x
  • FY28E: 11.4x

• P/B Ratio:

  • FY25: 1.7x
  • FY26E: 1.5x
  • FY27E: 1.4x
  • FY28E: 1.4x

• Yield (%):

  • FY25: 3.2%
  • FY26E: 3.9%
  • FY27E: 4.7%
  • FY28E: 5.4%

• ROE (%):

  • FY25: 8.9%
  • FY26E: 10.5%
  • FY27E: 11.8%
  • FY28E: 12.9%

• Net Gearing (%):

  • FY25: -10.8%
  • FY26E: -13.5%
  • FY27E: -14.8%
  • FY28E: -17.0%

Main Points

• Earnings Recovery: The company expects earnings to bottom out in FY26E due to ongoing restructuring and R&D overhauls, which are seen as positive indicators for future performance.
• Sales Recovery: Sales growth is expected to emerge in 2M26 with a lighter comparable base, indicating strong visibility for a return to growth in FY26E.
• Focus on Peak Season: Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring peak-season performance as it is currently off-season and will provide a better indication of the company's performance.
• PET Price Volatility: The company has secured low material prices for 1-2 quarters, but continued PET price fluctuations could still impact costs.
• Management Confidence: The management's share purchase plan signals strong confidence in the company's future.
• Reform Progress: The restructuring of the headquarters and R&D system has progressed, with a notable increase in R&D headcount and reduction in administrative staff.

Key Information

• Shareholding Structure:

  • CRH Beverage Ltd.: 50.0%
  • Plateau Consumer Ltd.: 33.4%

• Stock Data:

  • Market Cap: HK$21,224.1mn
  • 52-week High/Low: HK$14.88 / HK$8.85
  • Total Issued Shares: 2,398.2mn

• Target Price:

  • New: HK$11.09
  • Previous: HK$11.87
  • Upside: 25.3%

• Current Price: HK$8.85

• Dividend Payout Ratio:

  • FY25: 62%
  • FY26E: 91%

• Gross Margin:

  • FY25: 45.7%
  • FY26E: 46.5%
  • FY27E: 46.9%
  • FY28E: 46.9%

• Net Margin:

  • FY25: 9.0%
  • FY26E: 9.5%
  • FY27E: 10.4%
  • FY28E: 10.9%

What to Watch

• Peak-Season Sell-Through: A critical indicator of the company's performance as the current period is off-season.
• PET Price Movements: Continued volatility could affect the cost structure, despite recent price lock-ins.
• Reform Outcomes: The success of ongoing restructuring and R&D initiatives will be key to long-term growth.
• Share Performance: Management's share purchase plan and overall market sentiment towards the company.

Valuation Comparison

Analyst Certification

The analyst certifies that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views and that they have not received compensation directly or indirectly related to the views expressed. They also confirm that they have not traded in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to the report's issue and will not do so within 3 business days after the report's issue.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months.
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIG.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation or advice. It is based on publicly available information and may not be accurate or complete. CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Investors are advised to consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.