2016年Q1黄金行业调查（英文版）_25页_4mb

GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2016 Q1 Summary

Core Content Overview

The GFMS Gold Survey Q1 2016 highlights a mixed performance in the global gold market, with a notable rebound in investment demand and a significant drop in physical gold demand, especially in Asia. The report is supported by major sponsors including PAMP, Heraeus, The Perth Mint Australia, Italpreziosi Precious Metals, Tanaka, and Valcambi Suisse.

Main Points and Key Insights

Global Market Trends

• Gold Prices: Gold prices started 2016 in a strong upward trend, boosted by investment purchases, which reached 330 tonnes in Q1 2016, an eightfold increase compared to previous quarters.
• Physical Demand: Physical gold demand dropped by 24% to 781 tonnes, the lowest quarterly total since 2009. This decline was particularly sharp in India and China.
• Supply and Surplus: Total gold supply increased by 4% in Q1 2016, driven by a rebound in scrap supply. This led to a physical surplus of 310 tonnes, the highest since 2009.
• ETF Purchases: ETF purchases helped balance the market, keeping it broadly in equilibrium despite the physical surplus.

Investment and Demand Breakdown

• Retail Investment: Retail investment demand fell by 11% to 221 tonnes, with a notable decline in coin demand (-30.7%).
• Jewellery Consumption: Global jewellery consumption dropped by 31% to 372.8 tonnes, with China and India leading the decline.
• China's Demand: China's total gold demand fell by 27.3% to 301.6 tonnes, with jewellery consumption down 28% and retail investment up 10%. The country's gold imports also declined by 20%.
• India's Demand: India's jewellery consumption fell by 56% to 65 tonnes, the lowest since 2008. The introduction of an excise duty and a nationwide strike further depressed demand.
• Scrap Supply: Scrap supply rebounded, contributing to the physical surplus. In China, scrap imports reached 36 tonnes, the highest since Q3 2013.

Price Outlook

• The gold price rally in 2016 was deemed too rapid, and with weak demand from Asia, a correction is expected.
• The price is anticipated to fall below $1,200, but this will likely stimulate demand from the east and prevent prices from hitting cyclical lows.
• Gold prices are expected to resume their bull run and trade around $1,300/oz by year-end.

Regulatory Impact

• China: New hallmarking regulations for certain purities of gold jewellery were announced, causing confusion and a decline in demand. These regulations may have cost the industry between 7-10 tonnes of demand in Q1 2016.
• India: The introduction of an excise duty led to a nationwide strike, which significantly impacted demand. Tariff changes also played a role in the extended discount periods in the domestic market.

Key Tables and Data

World Gold Supply and Demand (Q1 2016)

Quarterly Jewellery Consumption and Demand

Conclusion

The Q1 2016 report indicates a complex interplay between investment and physical demand, with the latter suffering from weak economic conditions and regulatory changes. While investment demand surged, particularly in the U.S., physical demand, especially in China and India, faced significant challenges. The report suggests that gold prices are likely to experience a short-term correction but are expected to rebound, driven by renewed demand from Asian markets and ETF activity.