2016年Q2黄金行业调查（英文版）_26页_4mb

GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2016 Q2 Summary

Core Content

The GFMS Gold Survey Q2 2016 provides an in-depth analysis of the global gold market, highlighting significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, the impact of Brexit, and regional trends in key markets such as China and India. The report also includes price forecasts and insights into the broader economic and political environment affecting the precious metals sector.

Main Points

Global Supply and Demand

• Supply:

  • Mine production decreased by 2.2% YoY to 770 tonnes in Q2 2016.
  • Scrap flows increased by 9.2% YoY to 310 tonnes.
  • Net Hedging Supply decreased to 40 tonnes.
  • Total Supply rose by 6.2% YoY to 1,120 tonnes.

• Demand:

  • Physical demand dropped by 22.0% YoY to 715 tonnes, reaching a seven-year low.
  • Gold ETF demand set a new record, with a half-yearly total of 568 tonnes.
  • Retail investment demand declined by 2.6% YoY to 242 tonnes.
    • Bars declined by 11.8% YoY to 169 tonnes.
    • Coins increased by 27.9% YoY to 73 tonnes.
  • Net Official Sector demand fell by 48.5% YoY to 42 tonnes.
  • Physical Surplus/Deficit increased by 195.3% YoY to 404 tonnes.

• Gold Price:

  • The gold price surged to a 28-month high following the Brexit vote, reaching $1,260/oz.
  • YoY increase in gold price was 5.6%.
  • The price of gold in sterling terms hit £1,000/oz, the highest in over three years.

Brexit Impact

• Market Reaction:

  • The Brexit vote on June 23rd caused a surge in gold prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets.
  • Volatility spiked ahead of the vote, with implied volatility on one-month sterling-dollar options reaching crisis levels.
  • The British pound fell to a 31-year low against the U.S. dollar and is expected to remain under pressure.

• Economic Uncertainty:

  • Political and economic uncertainty in the UK is expected to persist, with volatility likely to continue.
  • The U.S. dollar rose to a three-month high, while the euro fell to its lowest since March 2016.
  • Gold is expected to maintain its role as a risk hedge due to ongoing global uncertainties.

Regional Analysis

China

• Jewellery Consumption:

  • Declined by 31% YoY to 78.1 tonnes in Q2 2016, the worst performance since 2009.
  • Retail investment demand fell by 12% YoY to 38.3 tonnes.
  • Gold ETF inflows increased by 39% YoY to 6.75 tonnes, boosting total holdings to 24.2 tonnes by June.
  • The first half of the year saw a 29% YoY decline in total demand, the lowest since 2010.

• Market Trends:

  • Daily trading volumes for gold futures surged on the day of the Brexit vote.
  • Imports via Hong Kong increased by over 60% YoY to 115 tonnes in May.
  • The average premium for gold in June reached $4.44/oz, up 60% from the first five months of the year.

• Outlook:

  • Fabrication demand is expected to improve slightly in September due to the National holiday.
  • Full recovery may not occur until 2018, with continued sector consolidation.

India

• Jewellery Consumption:

  • Fell by 56% YoY to 69 tonnes in Q2 2016, marking the second consecutive quarter of declines.
  • Retail investment demand dropped by 40% YoY.
  • Gross official imports fell by 58% YoY to 78 tonnes, the lowest since Q3 2013.

• Factors Affecting Demand:

  • Weak consumer sentiment due to a nationwide strike and poor monsoon conditions.
  • Regional elections in April and May dampened demand.
  • Price discrepancies between retail and cash purchase rates caused confusion and deferred buying.
  • Southern India's share in total jewellery volumes rose from 45% to 57%, while western India's share was 11.7%.

Other Regions

• Asia:

  • Total demand fell by 33.4% YoY to 253.7 tonnes.
  • China and India were the main contributors to the decline.

• Europe:

  • Total demand increased slightly by 0.5% YoY to 38.4 tonnes.
  • Turkey and Russia saw declines, while France and Belgium showed modest increases.

• North America:

  • Total demand rose by 11.4% YoY to 35.3 tonnes.
  • The United States saw a 12.4% increase, driven by ETF demand and retail investment.

• Africa and South America:

  • Africa's total demand fell by 21.3% YoY.
  • South America's total demand dropped by 26.1% YoY, with Brazil experiencing a steep decline.

Key Information

• The gold market faced a significant drop in physical demand, especially in Asia, with China and India leading the decline.
• Gold ETF demand set a new record, driven by increased interest in asset allocation and the shift from ZIRP to NIRP.
• Brexit caused a sharp increase in gold prices and a flight to safe-haven assets, with the pound falling to a 31-year low.
• The report outlines that while the global market was in a small surplus for the first half of 2016, this was largely due to the offsetting increase in ETF demand.
• The report highlights the importance of currency movements and political uncertainty in shaping gold demand and prices.

Price Outlook

• The 2016 average gold price forecast was revised upward to $1,279/oz from $1,184/oz, reflecting market conditions and sentiment changes.
• The report emphasizes that gold is likely to remain a safe-haven asset and a risk hedge due to ongoing global uncertainties.

Contributors

The report was produced by a team of experts including:

• Rhona O'Connell (Head of Metals Research & Forecasts)
• William Tankard (Manager, Mining)
• Cameron Alexander, Ross Strachan (Managers, Regional Demand)
• Sudheesh Namiath, Saida Litosh, Janette Tourney, Johann Wiebe, Erica Rannestad, Samson Li, Dante Aranda, Tamara Imangaliyeva, Natalie Scott-Gray, Alex Ji (Analysts)
• Beverley Salmon (Customer Relationship Manager)