2025-05-20-Jefferies-SSP集团（SSPG）_2季度维持2025财年指引_7页_103kb

Summary of UK Restaurants Equity Research: SSP Group (SSPG LN)

Date: May 20, 2025

Overview

This report provides an equity research analysis for SSP Group PLC, a leading global supplier of food and beverage services for travelers. The focus is on the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (2Q25E), with an unchanged "Buy" rating and a price target of 270p, representing a 61% upside from the previous price of 167.2p. The company is traded on the London Stock Exchange, with a current market capitalization of £1.3B and a 52-week high-low range of 213p to 134p.

Key Findings

• Financial Performance:

  • For the first half of 2025 (1H25E), revenue increased by +9% (constant currency +12%) to £1,661 million, aligning with company-compiled consensus. EBIT rose by +20% to £45 million.
  • Revenue growth varied by region: North America (+13.0% cc), Continental Europe (+3.3%), APAC & EMEE (+38.4%), and the UK (+8.5%).
  • Guideline net contract gains for FY2025E support revenue growth, with constant currency FX impact estimated at -1.9% for revenues and -4.2% for EBIT, leading to an EBIT range of £220-249 million.

• Guidance and Future Outlook:

  • Underlying constant currency revenue guidance for FY2025E remains at c8-10%, with EBIT between £230-260 million and EPS of 11.5-13.5p.
  • The company maintains this guidance despite noted macroeconomic uncertainties, with analysts suggesting that EPS downgrade cycles have peaked.
  • Catalysts include potential completion of an Indian JV listing this summer (delayed from Spring), ongoing overhead cost savings, tighter capital expenditure, and possible share buybacks at year-end.

• Valuation and Risks:

  • Current valuation at 13.4x price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for FY2025E suggests a near 50% discount to pre-COVID levels. The price target of 270p is based on a discounted cash flow analysis with a 2% terminal growth rate.
  • Risks include macroeconomic challenges, contract losses, and brand-related issues. The company is valued at £1.3B, with a dividend yield not explicitly detailed but contextualized in the multiple analysis.

• Analyst Views and Recommendations:

  • Analysts from Jefferies confirm that macroeconomic headwinds are a primary concern, but downward EPS reviews have stabilized. The "Buy" recommendation is supported by expected value catalysts like the India JV and cost initiatives, though there is acknowledgment of geopolitical and market uncertainties impacting regional performance.

Conclusion

SSP Group's fiscal outlook remains cautiously positive with steady performance in key markets like APAC and EMEE offsetting some North American declines. The unchanged guidance and valuation catalysts provide upside potential, making it a strong buy case despite macroeconomic headwinds.