20180705-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_498kb
报告摘要
Dim Sum Express Summary
Key Index Performance (July 5, 2018)
The following table outlines the performance of key indices for the period from July 5, 2018, including daily, monthly, and year-to-date (YTD) changes, as well as estimated earnings per share (EPS) growth and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2018 and 2019:
| Market | 1D (%) | 1M (%) | YTD (%) | 18E EPS (%) | 19E EPS (%) | 18E P/E | 19E P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | -1.1 | -9.2 | -5.6 | 39.8 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| HSCEI | -1.5 | -12.6 | -8.5 | 19.9 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| MXCN | -1.5 | -11.4 | -5.0 | 51.8 | 15.9 | 12.4 | 10.7 |
| SHSZ300 | -1.3 | -12.5 | -16.6 | 34.5 | 15.2 | 11.3 | 9.8 |
| SHCOMP | -1.0 | -11.4 | -17.7 | 37.8 | 13.5 | 11.0 | 9.7 |
| SZCOMP | -2.0 | -12.1 | -17.7 | 74.8 | 22.3 | 17.2 | 14.1 |
| INDU | -0.5 | -2.5 | -2.2 | 42.5 | 8.9 | 15.6 | 14.4 |
| SPX | -0.5 | -1.3 | 1.5 | 46.7 | 10.3 | 17.0 | 15.4 |
| CCMP | -0.9 | -1.8 | 8.7 | 82.7 | 16.6 | 22.6 | 19.4 |
| UKX | -0.3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 170.1 | 6.5 | 13.7 | 12.8 |
| NYK | 0.0 | -3.7 | -4.6 | 62.1 | 14.5 | 15.7 | 13.8 |
Hong Kong ADRs Performance
| HK Ticket Company | Local (HK$) | Daily (%) | ADR (US$) | Daily (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 700 TENCENT | 383.0 | -2.00 | 49.5 | -0.26 |
| 1398 ICBC | 5.8 | -0.17 | 14.0 | -3.52 |
| 939 CCB | 7.1 | -0.84 | 17.9 | 0.11 |
| 857 PETROCHINA | 5.8 | -1.70 | 75.3 | 1.02 |
| 5 HSBC | 72.2 | -0.21 | 46.7 | 0.45 |
| 941 CHINA MOBILE | 68.7 | 0.51 | 44.0 | -0.70 |
| 2318 PING AN | 69.9 | -1.27 | 36.3 | -3.00 |
| 3988 BANK OF CHINA | 3.9 | 0.52 | 6.4 | 0.08 |
| 386 SINOPEC | 6.8 | -1.01 | 29.7 | 0.99 |
| 1299 AIA | 67.3 | -0.15 | 8.7 | -1.09 |
A-Share Transportation Outlook
Airlines
- Optimistic Outlook: The airline sector is expected to benefit from improved supply and demand conditions.
- Price Liberalization: Core route prices are liberalizing, which may lead to a re-evaluation of airlines with high-quality routes.
- Recommendations: Air China (601111 CH) and China Southern Airlines (600029 CH) are recommended due to their strong performance and potential.
Highways & Railway
- "Highway to Railway" Initiative: Expected to improve rail freight transportation capacity.
- Transportation Capacity: Tielong Container Logistics (600125 CH) and Daqin Railway (601006 CH) have room for improvement in capacity.
- Freight Prices: Increased capacity may lead to lower freight prices, potentially exceeding earnings expectations.
- Recommendations: High-dividend stocks and companies undergoing transformation with sufficient capital are top picks.
Ports
- Container Shipping: Market concentration is increasing, and the industry is entering a recovery phase.
- "Highway to Railway" Impact: Ports serving key railroads are expected to benefit.
- Recommendations: COSCO (601919 CH) is highlighted for its strong performance and potential.
Couriers
- Cost Control: Companies with strong cost control are likely to outperform.
- Order Volume Growth: Differences in order volume growth are widening.
- Recommendations: Yunda (002120 CH) is recommended due to its improved market share.
Rare Earths Outlook
- Environmental Inspections: Major rare earth producing provinces have undergone inspections, leading to production cuts and affecting Pr-ND output.
- Supply Constraints: Environmental regulations are becoming stricter, and companies with issues may struggle to resume operations.
- Demand Growth: Demand for Pr-ND is steady due to the growth of NdFeB materials.
- Supply-Demand Tightness: Pr-ND supply remains tight, with only a small surplus in lanthanum and cerium.
- Price Expectations: Prices are expected to rise due to reduced supply and increased demand during peak seasons.
- Risks: Environmental issues may allow some companies to resume production, policy implementation may lag, and heavy rare earth inventory sales may be poor.
Rating Definitions
Company Ratings
- Buy: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
- Accumulate: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
- Hold: Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
- Underperform: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%
Sector Ratings
- Positive: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
- Neutral: Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
- Cautious: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities. It is intended for GF Securities (Hong Kong) clients. The information may not be accurate or complete, and GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any losses incurred. Investors should exercise their own judgment and consult professional advice before making investment decisions.
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