2018年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_the_Republic_of_Belarus_for_the_Period_of_FY18-22_96页_1mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for the Republic of Belarus (FY18–22)

Core Content

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the Republic of Belarus, covering the period FY18–22, is aligned with the Government of Belarus' Program of Activities 2016–20 and is based on the findings of a Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). It aims to support sustainable and inclusive growth and improve living standards, in line with the World Bank Group's twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.

The CPF is designed to be calibrated to the likely pace of policy reforms and adaptable to changes. It emphasizes three interlinked focus areas and a cross-cutting theme related to data and transparency in public decision-making. The CPF also incorporates lessons from the 2014–17 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) Completion and Learning Review (CLR), highlighting the importance of measurable efficiency gains, strong analytical support, consensus-building, and institutional ownership.

The CPF is supported by IBRD/IDA lending, IFC investments, and MIGA guarantees, with estimated funding levels of US$570 million from IBRD and US$80–120 million from IFC. The CPF also leverages EU Trust Funds to expand advisory services on economic management, social protection, and private sector development.

Main Views and Key Information

Country Context and Development Agenda

• Political Stability: Belarus has a stable political environment with a centralized decision-making system and strong human and administrative capacity. The President, Alexander Lukashenko, has been in office since 1994 and has maintained a policy of full employment and real wage growth.
• Economic Dependence: The economy has historically relied on foreign borrowing, subsidized fuel imports, and Russian economic developments. This dependence has led to structural rigidities and fiscal constraints.
• Poverty Reduction: Belarus has achieved significant poverty reduction, with poverty rates falling from 32% in 2003 to less than 1% in 2014–16. However, recent recession (2015–16) reversed some gains, increasing the proportion of people living below US$10 per day to 12.3% in 2015.
• Social and Economic Disparities: Spatial disparities in living standards have widened since 2014, and vulnerable households have experienced demographic changes. The vulnerability rate for larger households has increased, and child poverty rose by 35% from 2013 to 2016.
• Health System: The health system is equitable and affordable, but underperforming in efficiency and outcomes. There is a high incidence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), particularly cardiovascular diseases, due to poor lifestyle choices. The system needs to improve integration, efficiency, and primary care services.
• Education System: Belarus has a strong educational system with high literacy and numeracy rates. However, passive learning methods, lack of diversity, and mismatch with labor market needs are challenges. The system needs to move toward active learning, improve ICT literacy, and align with international standards like the Bologna Process.
• Gender Equality: Belarus is a leader in gender equality among ECA countries, ranking 12th out of 160 in the OECD Social Institutions and Gender Index. However, women still face wage gaps and underrepresentation in leadership roles.
• Utility Subsidies: Utility subsidies have fiscal and social implications. While tariff increases are expected, subsidies and cross-subsidies remain significant. The tariff for housing and communal services (excluding heat) is expected to reach cost recovery levels in 2018. These changes may increase costs for low-income households but are supported by revised subsidy programs and energy efficiency initiatives.

Focus Areas

1. Creating opportunities for private sector growth and efficient public investment

   • Strengthen market signals for capital and labor allocation.
   • Ensure competitive neutrality and deregulation of markets.
   • Improve public utility service delivery and eliminate cross-subsidization.

2. Maintaining Belarus' human capital edge

   • Enhance higher education, research, and innovation systems to align with labor market needs.
   • Promote active and healthy ageing.
   • Improve tertiary education and skills development.

3. Improving contribution of infrastructure to climate change management, economic growth, and human development

   • Enhance energy efficiency and climate change adaptation.
   • Improve logistics and transport services.
   • Support resilient infrastructure and public investment management.

Cross-Cutting Theme

• Promoting data use and transparency in public decision-making.
• This theme reflects the need for better access to information, impact data, and public-private dialogue to support informed policy decisions.

Implementation and Risk Management

• The CPF includes flexibility and performance and learning review (PLR) to assess which initiatives are ready for scaled implementation in FY21–22.
• Risks are rated moderate overall, but macroeconomic risks are substantial.
• Public Financial Management (PFM) and Private Sector Development (PSD) are central to the CPF's strategy.
• The CPF emphasizes realistic disbursement profiles, measurable results indicators, and institutional ownership for successful policy implementation.

Conclusion

The CPF aims to support sustainable development and improve living standards in Belarus by focusing on private sector growth, human capital development, and efficient infrastructure investment. It is built on previous lessons and ongoing partnerships with the World Bank Group, IFC, and MIGA, and it incorporates data-driven decision-making and policy flexibility to address structural challenges and external shocks. The CPF is expected to reinforce education, health, and economic management to enhance long-term resilience and inclusive growth.