全球经济面临的10大风险（英文版）_25页-2mb

Summary of "Cause for Concern?" - The Top 10 Risks to the Global Economy

Core Content

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has released a report identifying the top 10 risks to the global economy. The report outlines the current economic outlook, the geopolitical and financial challenges that could impact global growth, and the EIU's role in providing insights and risk analysis to businesses and governments.

The report suggests that while the global economy is expected to grow at a 3% rate in 2018, the level of risk is at a high level. These risks are not only local but also global in nature, with the US playing a central role in several of them. The EIU provides a range of services, including country analysis, risk analysis, and industry analysis, to help clients understand and manage these risks.

Main Risks and Key Points

The report identifies the following top 10 risks, ranked by intensity:

Risk Intensity and Classification

• Intensity is measured on a 25-point scale, combining probability and potential impact.
• Probability is classified as:
  • Very high: >40%
  • High: 31-40%
  • Moderate: 21-30%
  • Low: 11-20%
  • Very low: 0-10%
• Impact is classified as:
  • Very high: Change to global annual GDP of 2% or more
  • High: 1-1.9%
  • Moderate: 0.5-0.9%
  • Low: 0.2-0.5%
  • Very low: 0-0.1%

Key Risks and Analysis

1. Prolonged fall in major stockmarkets destabilises the global economy

• Probability: Moderate
• Impact: Very high
• Cause: Increased volatility due to US jobs data and potential Fed tightening.
• Effect: Could lead to contagion effects, lower consumer spending, and impaired credit channels.

2. Global trade slumps as US steps up protectionist policies

• Probability: Moderate
• Impact: Very high
• Cause: Risk of US pulling out of NAFTA or instigating a trade war with China.
• Effect: Could disrupt global supply chains and curtail growth.

3. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea lead to an outbreak of hostilities

• Probability: Moderate
• Impact: High
• Cause: Rising assertiveness of China and declining US hegemony.
• Effect: Disruption of regional supply networks and major sea lanes.

4. Global growth surges above 4%

• Probability: Moderate
• Impact: High
• Cause: Strong growth in emerging markets and Europe.
• Effect: Could boost commodity prices and aid economic rebalancing in China.

5. A major cyber-attack cripples corporate and government activities

• Probability: Moderate
• Impact: High
• Cause: Increasing frequency and severity of cyber-attacks, especially ransomware.
• Effect: Could damage physical infrastructure and undermine consumer confidence.

6. China suffers a disorderly and prolonged economic downturn

• Probability: Low
• Impact: Very high
• Cause: Risk of deleveraging issues and financial sector instability.
• Effect: Could lead to lower global commodity prices and impact emerging markets.

7. There is a major military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula

• Probability: Low
• Impact: Very high
• Cause: Rising tensions due to North Korea's nuclear progress and US hardline stance.
• Effect: Could lead to devastating consequences for South Korea, Japan, and global supply chains.

8. Proxy conflicts in the Middle East escalate into direct confrontations that cripple global energy markets

• Probability: Low
• Impact: Very high
• Cause: Escalation of Saudi-Iran rivalry and US policy shifts.
• Effect: Could disrupt oil supply and increase energy prices, harming global growth.

9. Oil prices fall significantly after the OPEC deal to curb production breaks down

• Probability: Moderate
• Impact: Moderate
• Cause: Risk of OPEC and Russia not maintaining production cuts.
• Effect: Could lead to lower oil prices, affecting commodity-dependent economies.

10. Multiple countries withdraw from the euro zone

• Probability: Low
• Impact: Moderate
• Cause: Economic instability in some euro zone countries.
• Effect: Could increase regional uncertainty and affect global financial markets.

Conclusion

The report highlights the increased complexity of global risks, driven by geopolitical tensions, economic imbalances, and technological threats. It underscores the need for robust risk analysis and forecasting to navigate these uncertainties. The EIU provides a comprehensive range of services to support businesses and governments in understanding and responding to these risks.