20161012-三星证券-The_Mobile_2.0_era__A_time_of_polarization_45页_3mb

Sector Update Summary

Core Content

This report, authored by analysts Jongwook Lee, Donghwan Oh, Seungwoo Yang, and Jaehun Cheong from Samsung Securities, explores the evolution of IT devices and the emergence of the Mobile 2.0 era. It focuses on the technological advancements in perceptual computing and mobility, and how these innovations may redefine the future of smartphones and the broader IT industry.

Main Viewpoints

1. The Mobile 2.0 Era: A Time of Polarization

• The report suggests that the Mobile 2.0 era will be characterized by perceptual computing and smart devices with mobility, leading to a polarization in the IT industry.
• The success of new devices is not solely dependent on killer content, but also on technological innovation and infrastructure development.
• VR and AR have gained significant attention in 2016, but their adoption is still limited due to technical shortcomings and business model challenges.

2. Why Now? Technological and Market Conditions

• VR became prominent in 2016 due to a combination of hardware advancements, software improvements, supply chain limitations, and consumer demand.
• The iPhone was not the sole reason for the smartphone boom, but it played a pivotal role. Its success was more about market timing and infrastructure readiness (e.g., 3G networks) than just product innovation.
• The internet was the key factor that transformed the PC market in the 1990s, showing that infrastructure is as important as device innovation.

3. Evolution of IT Devices

• The evolution of IT devices has been driven by ideas and convergence of technologies, not just novelty.
• The iPhone and smartphones represent a convergence of phone, internet, and multimedia capabilities.
• Smartphones have become more sophisticated with the integration of multiple sensors (e.g., GPS, accelerometers, gyroscopes, etc.), enhancing their perceptual computing abilities.

4. Limitations of Current Smartphones

• Despite their advancements, smartphones are not yet fully utilizing their sensor capabilities for data collection and analysis.
• The Mobile 2.0 era requires data accumulation, perceptual computing, and greater data gathering from mobile devices.
• Navigation and autonomous driving are different in that the former only provides location data, while the latter involves real-time decision-making.

5. Future of Smart Devices and Multi-Device Ecosystem

• Perceptual computing is the key to the next phase of mobile evolution.
• VR and AR may integrate with drones and robots, offering new ways to interact with the physical world.
• Multi-device ecosystems are expected to become more prevalent, where user experiences across devices are unified.

Key Information

Companies and Products Highlighted

• Samsung Electro-Mechanics (Target price: KRW65,000)
• Wonik IPS (Target price: KRW35,000)
• Naver (Target price: KRW1,000,000)
• CJE&M (Target price: KRW105,000)

Historical Context

• The Virtual Boy (1995) was a failed VR attempt due to inconvenience, low resolution, and user discomfort.
• Project Tango (Google) and RealSense (Intel) are pioneering perceptual computing.
• Olivetti Programma 101 (1965) and Apple II (1976) were early steps in PC evolution, but it was the internet that truly transformed the market.

Sensor Technologies

• Smartphones now incorporate 20+ sensors, but data utilization remains limited.
• Perceptual computing involves sensor data processing to understand the environment.
• Future sensors may include taste/smell, biometric recognition, and environmental sensors (e.g., air pressure, pollution, etc.).

Business Models

• A successful device requires both hardware innovation and a solid business model.
• The iPhone boosted the App Store, and VR devices must be linked with content platforms like YouTube and Facebook.
• Wearables have not succeeded due to lack of unique software value, despite hardware quality.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that technological progress and infrastructure development are the drivers of change in the IT industry. The Mobile 2.0 era is expected to be triggered by perceptual computing and mobility, leading to a multi-device world. While VR and AR have captured attention, their adoption is still limited, and hardware improvements and data utilization are key to unlocking their full potential.