20230423-广发期货-煤焦钢矿周报_钢厂减产兑现负反馈预期_成本下移打开成材下跌空间_68页_9mb

广发期货黑色金属周报总结

一、总览

• 钢厂减产： Steel production cuts reduce demand for raw materials, leading to negative feedback and price declines in the black metal complex.
• 趁势操作：以空头操作为主，关注补跌迹象和远期贴水。

二、品种观点

1. 钢材

   • 趋势： Steel prices weakly volatile, supported by 3500 yuan support level.
   • 操作建议： Short-Hot Rolled Coil 06/07 contracts due to inventory accumulation.

2. 铁矿石

   • 趋势： Iron ore supply surplus continues, demand peaked, port inventory restocking.
   • 操作建议： Biased short, recommend exits by 06/07 if delivery improves.

3. 焦炭

   • 趋势：原料 costs falling; profit margins stable for coking plants.
   • 操作建议： Far-month contracts bearish, recommend High Short 09 if demand weakens.

4. 焦煤

   • 趋势： Mined coal inventory rising; demand soft, supply stable.
   • 操作建议： Far-month bearish, High Short 09 if procurement cautious.

三、免责声明

• Report views are for reference only. Prudence reading disclaimer as listed on page 2 of raw report required. Refer to “Disclaimer” section for final responsibility.