美联储-公司债务到期与商业周期波动（英）-2025.5_55页_2mb
报告摘要
- Main Topic: The role of long-term debt and equity adjustment costs in shaping business cycle dynamics.
- Key Findings: Including long-term debt and costly equity issuance in a DSGE model shows that credit supply shocks are the primary drivers of business cycle fluctuations. This contrasts with risk shocks, which dominate in models with short-term debt.
- Mechanism: Equity adjustment costs and long-term debt create balance sheet and debt dilution channels that mitigate the impact of financial shocks, dampening investment and output contractions.
- Methodology: A novel algorithm addresses computational challenges in modeling long-term debt, enabling Bayesian estimation with financial and macroeconomic data.
- Policy Implications: Corporate financing structures affect fiscal responses to shocks; policies should account for debt maturity and adjustment costs.
- Data: Equity adjustment costs estimated using Compustat firm-level data.
- Conclusion: Accounting for both long-term debt and equity costs is crucial for accurately identifying shock drivers and understanding business cycles.
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