20120930-IEA-Oil_and_Gas_Emergency_Policy_Germany_2012_update_27页_2mb
报告摘要
Germany Energy and Oil Overview Summary
Core Content
Germany has a minimal level of domestic oil and natural gas production, relying heavily on imports for its energy needs. The country has a well-diversified and flexible supply infrastructure, including pipelines and import terminals, and is a major consumer of oil in Europe. Despite a long-term decline in oil consumption, Germany continues to prioritize energy security and sustainability, with a strong focus on renewable energy and reducing oil dependency.
Key Oil Data
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Production (kb/d):
- 1985: 130.0
- 1990: 102.7
- 1995: 76.3
- 2000: 85.8
- 2005: 113.2
- 2009: 90.8
- 2010: 76.1
- 2011: 79.9
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Demand (kb/d):
- 1985: 2,650.6
- 1990: 2,681.8
- 1995: 2,882.2
- 2000: 2,766.8
- 2005: 2,620.7
- 2009: 2,452.8
- 2010: 2,469.6
- 2011: 2,400.1
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Net Imports (kb/d):
- 1985: 2,520.6
- 1990: 2,579.1
- 1995: 2,805.9
- 2000: 2,681.0
- 2005: 2,507.5
- 2009: 2,362.0
- 2010: 2,393.5
- 2011: 2,320.2
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Import Dependency:
- 1985: 95.1%
- 1990: 96.2%
- 1995: 97.4%
- 2000: 96.9%
- 2005: 95.7%
- 2009: 96.3%
- 2010: 96.9%
- 2011: 96.7%
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Refining Capacity (kb/d):
- 1985: 2,172
- 1990: 1,507
- 1995: 2,317
- 2000: 2,275
- 2005: 2,323
- 2009: 2,418
- 2010: 2,466
- 2011: 2,466
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Oil in TPES:
- 1985: 33.7%
- 1990: 34.6%
- 1995: 38.6%
- 2000: 37.1%
- 2005: 34.3%
- 2009: 32.6%
- 2010: 32.0%
Key Natural Gas Data
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Production (mcm/y):
- 1985: 22,021
- 1990: 18,919
- 1995: 21,069
- 2000: 22,049
- 2005: 19,850
- 2009: 14,953
- 2010: 13,042
- 2011: 11,905
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Demand (mcm/y):
- 1985: 64,042
- 1990: 69,723
- 1995: 83,378
- 2000: 87,728
- 2005: 98,176
- 2009: 93,508
- 2010: 90,069
- 2011: 78,992
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Net Imports (mcm/y):
- 1985: 42,021
- 1990: 50,804
- 1995: 62,309
- 2000: 65,679
- 2005: 78,326
- 2009: 78,555
- 2010: 77,027
- 2011: 67,087
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Import Dependency:
- 1985: 65.6%
- 1990: 72.9%
- 1995: 74.7%
- 2000: 74.9%
- 2005: 79.8%
- 2009: 84.0%
- 2010: 85.5%
- 2011: 84.9%
-
Natural Gas in TPES:
- 1985: 13.7%
- 1990: 15.7%
- 1995: 20.0%
- 2000: 21.4%
- 2005: 23.9%
- 2009: 24.1%
- 2010: 22.3%
Main Points
1. Energy Outlook
- Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in Germany has been in slow decline since 1979, despite GDP growth.
- Oil remains the main energy source, contributing about 32% of TPES in 2010, down from 47% in 1973.
- Natural gas has increased its share in TPES from 9% in 1973 to 22% in 2010.
- Coal's share in TPES has dropped significantly from 42% to 24%.
- Germany aims to increase renewable energy in electricity generation to 35% by 2020 and phase out nuclear power by 2022.
- The government has set a target to reduce transport sector energy consumption by 10% (2005-2020) and 40% (2005-2050).
2. Oil
2.1 Market Features and Key Issues
- Domestic oil production is low, around 2% of consumption, and is expected to continue declining.
- Oil imports account for ~98% of domestic consumption, with a well-diversified supply base.
- Crude oil is imported through pipelines and sea ports, with a significant portion coming from the former USSR, OECD countries, and OPEC.
- Refined product imports are mainly from OECD countries, especially Europe.
- The government has a target to reduce transport oil consumption and promote electric vehicles.
2.2 Oil Supply Infrastructure
- Germany has 14 refineries with a total refining capacity of 2,364.4 kb/d.
- Major refiners include Shell (25.6%), BP (14.5%), Total (11.8%), and ConocoPhillips (13.9%).
- Oil is imported through four major sea ports (three on the North Sea, one on the Baltic Sea) and four cross-border pipelines.
- Storage capacity is around 65.7 mcm, with 27.3 mcm in caverns and the rest in above-ground facilities.
2.3 Decision-Making Structure for Oil Emergencies
- The Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) is the lead authority for oil emergency decisions.
- The Oil Stockholding Act requires the German National Petroleum Stockpiling Agency (EBV) to maintain stocks equivalent to 90 days of net imports.
- Emergency stock release is authorized through an Ordinance issued by BMWi.
- The National Emergency Strategy Organisation (NESO) and its Crisis Supply Council (KVR) assist in decision-making and implementation.
2.4 Stocks
- Germany consistently meets the IEA's 90-day stockholding obligation, often exceeding it.
- As of April 2012, the country held 140 days of net imports, equivalent to 31,328 ktcoe.
- The EBV holds the majority of oil stocks, with commercial stocks held by industry for non-emergency purposes.
- The EBV is planning to expand its cavern storage at Wilhelmshaven-Rüstringen.
Other Measures
3.1 Demand Restraint
- The government may impose restrictions on the sale, purchase, or use of oil during emergencies.
- These restrictions are based on Ordinances that can limit the quantity or time of use, or restrict to priority purposes.
3.2 Surge Production and Fuel Switching
- Germany has a flexible supply infrastructure that allows for surge production and fuel switching during crises.
- The country has no LNG infrastructure but has access to overseas LNG terminals.
3.3 Others
- Germany has no compulsory natural gas storage requirements or state-owned storage facilities.
- Operators of gas storage facilities must provide access to other companies at fair market prices.
- There are 47 gas storage facilities with a total capacity of 20.9 bcm, plus access to 2.6 bcm in Austria.
Natural Gas
4.1 Market Features and Key Issues
- Natural gas consumption has declined by 10% since 2006, from 100 bcm in 2005 to 78.992 bcm in 2011.
- The share of natural gas in TPES is currently around 22%.
- Germany has no LNG infrastructure but has access to overseas LNG terminals.
4.2 Natural Gas Supply Infrastructure
- Natural gas is imported exclusively via cross-border pipelines.
- Germany has a well-developed pipeline network and access to storage facilities in Austria.
- The country has 47 gas storage facilities with a total capacity of 20.9 bcm.
4.3 Emergency Policy for Natural Gas
- There are no compulsory natural gas storage requirements.
- Operators of gas storage facilities must grant access to other companies at fair market prices.
- The government may impose emergency measures to restrict or prioritize the use of natural gas during crises.
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