20101231-IEA-Oil_and_Gas_Emergency_Policy_Italy_2010_update_17页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Italy's Energy Outlook and Emergency Policies

Core Content

Italy is a significant energy consumer in Europe, with Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) reaching approximately 175 Mtoe in 2008. The country's energy mix is dominated by oil and natural gas, which together accounted for over 80% of TPES since 1973. However, both oil and gas production are expected to decline in the coming years, with oil production meeting less than 10% of domestic needs in 2008. The reliance on imports is high, and Italy is among the most import-dependent countries in Europe for oil and natural gas.

Key Oil Data

Production (kb/d):
- 1985: 46.5
- 1990: 90.3
- 1995: 96.2
- 2000: 78.0
- 2005: 124.6
- 2007: 125.1
- 2008: 119.2
- 2009: 102.6
Demand (kb/d):
- 1985: 1,704.6
- 1990: 1,868.4
- 1995: 1,942.1
- 2000: 1,853.8
- 2005: 1,754.8
- 2007: 1,687.8
- 2008: 1,632.8
- 2009: 1,527.7
Import Dependency:
- 1985: 97.3%
- 1990: 95.2%
- 1995: 95.0%
- 2000: 95.8%
- 2005: 92.9%
- 2007: 92.6%
- 2008: 92.7%
- 2009: 93.3%
Refining Capacity (kb/d):
- 1985: 3,095
- 1990: 2,804
- 1995: 2,260
- 2000: 2,341
- 2005: 2,321
- 2007: 2,337
- 2008: 2,337
- 2009: 2,337
Oil in TPES:
- 1985: 59.9%
- 1990: 58.0%
- 1995: 58.4%
- 2000: 51.8%
- 2005: 44.7%
- 2007: 43.4%
- 2008: 42.0%
- 2009: 42.1%

Oil Demand Trends

Oil demand in Italy fell by 12% between 1999 and 2009.
Demand is increasingly concentrated in the transportation sector, with diesel consumption rising by 60% and motor gasoline and residual fuel oil use declining.
The shift to natural gas in electricity generation has reduced oil's share in the power sector from over 75% in 1973 to less than 50% in 2008.

Oil Supply Infrastructure

Italy has 16 major refineries, 12 of which are coastal and supplied by sea.
There are 16 crude oil tanker ports, with four capable of receiving large cargo ships.
Two major crude oil pipelines supply refineries in northern Italy and foreign markets.
Storage capacity is distributed across 704 depots, with over 50% located in northern regions.
Storage is mainly split into one-third crude and two-thirds finished products.

Oil Emergency Response

The Ministry of Economic Development oversees emergency procedures and maintains an operating handbook.
The National Emergency Strategy Organisation (NESO) includes representatives from key ministries and the oil industry.
In a supply disruption, the Conference of Services would convene within 24 hours to decide on measures.
Companies may be required to draw down stocks, and non-compliance incurs fines of EUR 5,165 per day per tonne.
Compulsory stocks must cover at least 90 days of domestic consumption, and companies may hold crude to meet up to 40% of their light/middle distillate obligations or 50% of their fuel oil obligations.

Oil Stocks and Distribution

As of 2009, around 20 million barrels of compulsory stocks were held abroad, accounting for 13% of total stocks.
Bilateral agreements with several EU countries allow for stock coverage outside Italy.
Companies must report monthly on their stock locations, quantities, and quality.
No financial support is provided for stock holding.

Demand Restraint Measures

The Conference of Services has the authority to implement demand restraint measures, including public appeals, reduced heating, and driving restrictions.
A driving ban is the preferred measure, with potential to reduce transportation oil consumption by 10–15%.
Domestic heating demand is decreasing, limiting the scope for oil savings through such measures.

Fuel Switching

During the Gulf Crisis, Italy used about half of its fuel-switching capacity by replacing fuel oil with natural gas.
Approximately a third of oil-fired plants can still switch to gas in an emergency.
Fuel switching capacity is declining due to reduced oil use in thermoelectric plants.

Natural Gas Data

Production (mcm/y):
- 1985: 14,245
- 1990: 17,296
- 1995: 20,384
- 2000: 16,633
- 2005: 12,071
- 2007: 9,706
- 2008: 9,255
- 2009: 8,119
Demand (mcm/y):
- 1985: 32,592
- 1990: 47,405
- 1995: 54,385
- 2000: 70,745
- 2005: 86,265
- 2007: 84,897
- 2008: 84,883
- 2009: 78,126
Import Dependency:
- 1985: 56.3%
- 1990: 63.5%
- 1995: 62.5%
- 2000: 76.5%
- 2005: 86.0%
- 2007: 88.6%
- 2008: 89.1%
- 2009: 89.6%
Natural Gas in TPES:
- 1985: 21.4%
- 1990: 27.2%
- 1995: 28.6%
- 2000: 34.5%
- 2005: 39.3%
- 2007: 39.7%
- 2008: 40.3%
- 2009: 40.2%

Natural Gas Supply Infrastructure

Italy has seven main import delivery points, including five pipelines and two LNG terminals.
The TAG pipeline through Tarvisio and the TPMC pipeline through Mazara del Vallo are the most significant.
Two LNG terminals are operational, with a third planned for 2011.
Gas storage capacity is about 9 bcm, with the ability to cover 70% of peak winter demand.

Natural Gas Emergency Policy

Italy has established a mandatory emergency response system for natural gas, including strategic and working gas storage.
Strategic storage should equal 50% of peak imports at the main entry point for 60 days.
The maximum withdrawal capacity can theoretically cover 70% of peak winter demand.
The Ministry of Economic Development updated emergency procedures in 2007, outlining roles and measures.
Penalties are imposed for non-compliance with import capacity obligations.
The emergency procedures include measures to increase imports and reduce consumption.

Key Issues and Trends

The shift from oil to natural gas in electricity generation is a major driver of energy policy changes.
Italy's energy security is underpinned by a robust emergency response framework, with a focus on stock management, demand restraint, and fuel switching.
The country is highly dependent on imports, with Libya and Russia as the main suppliers.
The authorisation process for new storage capacity is a barrier to improving energy security.
Renewable energy growth is limited, and coal is not widely accepted, constraining diversification.
The nuclear option has been reconsidered as part of future power generation strategies.

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