20110430-IEA-Oil_and_Gas_Emergency_Policy_Ireland_2011_update_19页_1mb
报告摘要
Ireland Energy Overview Summary
Core Content
Ireland's energy landscape is dominated by oil and natural gas, with oil representing 50% of the country's total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2009 and natural gas accounting for 30%. Oil demand peaked in 2006 at 203 kb/d and declined to 167 kb/d in 2009. Natural gas demand increased by 45% over the last decade, reaching 5.1 bcm (14 mcm/d) in 2009. Ireland has no indigenous oil production and relies entirely on imports, with the United Kingdom being the primary supplier for both crude oil and refined products.
Key Figures
| Year | Oil Demand (kb/d) | Natural Gas Demand (mcm/y) |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | - | 2,468 |
| 1990 | - | 2,318 |
| 1995 | - | 2,778 |
| 2000 | - | 1,186 |
| 2005 | - | 572 |
| 2008 | - | 438 |
| 2009 | 167 | 391 |
| 2010 | - | - |
Main Points
1. Energy Outlook
- Oil remains the dominant energy source, with natural gas growing in importance.
- TPES is expected to increase from 14 Mtoe in 2009 to 18 Mtoe by 2020.
- The combined share of oil and natural gas in TPES is expected to remain around 80% in 2020.
- Coal's share in TPES has remained stable at 15% over the past decade.
- Natural gas has surpassed coal as the main fuel source for electricity generation, representing 58% of the generation mix in 2008.
2. Oil
2.1 Market Features and Key Issues
- Ireland has no indigenous oil production; all crude oil is imported.
- Oil demand peaked in 2006 and has been declining since.
- The transport sector's share of oil demand increased from 48% in 2000 to 60% in 2009.
- Motor gasoline and diesel demand grew by 9% and 44%, respectively, between 2000 and 2009.
- Oil importers have no stockholding obligations, and industry stockholding is not mandatory.
2.2 Oil Supply Infrastructure
- The only oil refinery is operated by ConocoPhillips at Whitegate, with a capacity of 75 kb/d.
- Refinery output in 2009 was 56 kb/d, with a utilization rate of 75%.
- The main storage facilities are located at Whiddy Island (Bantry), Whitegate, and various ports.
- Total storage capacity as of March 2009 was 18.8 million barrels (2523 thousand tons), with 40% located at Whiddy Island.
- Ireland has no oil pipeline infrastructure; distribution is mainly by road.
2.3 Decision-Making Structure for Oil Emergencies
- The Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources is responsible for emergency response.
- The Oil Supply Division of DCENR acts as NESO, with the Deputy Secretary as head.
- NORA is responsible for managing emergency oil reserves.
- In a domestic supply disruption, NORA stocks are allocated based on market share.
- In a global supply disruption, NORA stocks are made available via tender or ticketed stocks abroad.
- Stock drawdown is expected to be implemented within 24 to 48 hours of an emergency declaration.
2.4 Stocks
- Ireland meets its stockholding obligations through NORA's stocks, both in the country and in other EU states.
- NORA holds 90% of public stocks in Ireland as middle distillates, with 80% of its stocks abroad also being middle distillates.
- NORA's goal is to achieve 80 days of physical stocks and 10 days of ticketed stocks by 2012.
- The NORA levy is EUR 0.02 per litre on gasoline, kerosene, gas oil, diesel, and fuel oils.
- Operating costs in 2009 were EUR 36.9 million, including EUR 28.4 million for storage, EUR 4.3 million for stock tickets, and EUR 4.1 million for other costs.
3. Other Measures
3.1 Demand Restraint
- Demand restraint measures are expected to be introduced incrementally to manage oil shortages.
- Measures include national speed limits, traffic restrictions, alternate driving days, and restrictions on fuel sales.
- The government may impose orders on fuel supply and distribution, with the support of other departments like Justice and Transport.
3.2 Fuel Switching
- Fuel switching capacity out of oil has decreased due to reliance on natural gas for electricity generation.
- HFO and distillate oil accounted for 3.1% and 0.1% of the electricity generation mix in 2009.
- All HFO generating capacity is scheduled to be decommissioned by 2012, reducing the ability to switch to natural gas in an emergency.
3.3 Others
- Surge production is not considered an emergency response measure due to no indigenous oil production.
4. Natural Gas
4.1 Market Features and Key Issues
- Natural gas production peaked in the 1990s at 2.8 bcm and declined to 391 mcm in 2009.
- The Corrib gas field, expected to start commercial production in 2012/13, will meet 73% of annual demand and 41% of peak day demand.
- Production is expected to decline to 4.2 mcm/d by 2018/19.
4.2 Natural Gas Supply Infrastructure
- Ireland has two entry points for natural gas: Inch and Moffat.
- The Inch entry point connects offshore gas fields and storage to the onshore network.
- The Moffat entry point connects the UK national transmission system to the Irish network via two sub-sea interconnectors.
- The current capacity of the interconnector system is 22.7 mcm/d.
4.3 Emergency Policy for Natural Gas
- Emergency planning involves collaboration with the UK and Northern Ireland.
- Diversification of supply, development of commercial gas storage, and Common Arrangements for Gas (CAG) are central to Ireland's natural gas security policy.
- The Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources oversees the emergency policy, with the Oil Supply Division acting as NESO.
- In the event of a global supply disruption, the ICRP of the IEA would be activated, and NORA stocks would be made available via tender or ticketed stocks abroad.
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