2015年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Transatlantic_Growth_Gap_2页_184kb

The Transatlantic Growth Gap Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the growing economic disparity between the United States and the eurozone following the global financial crisis of 2008. While both regions experienced a sharp economic decline in 2009, the US began to recover in 2010, whereas the eurozone, particularly its periphery, struggled with a prolonged recovery. This divergence led to a significant growth gap, with the US economy growing about 6 percentage points more than the eurozone over the period 2011–2013 on a total GDP basis, and 4.5 percentage points more on a per capita basis.

Main Views

• Economic Recovery Disparity: The US and eurozone initially faced similar economic shocks from the financial crisis, but the eurozone's recovery was notably slower.
• Private Consumption as a Key Factor: The resilience of private consumption in the US played a major role in the growth gap. In contrast, private consumption in the eurozone fell significantly, especially in the periphery.
• Public Consumption and Investment: The decline in public consumption in the US (by 0.8 percentage points) had a more substantial negative impact on demand than in the eurozone (by 0.1 percentage points). Public investment also declined in both regions, but its impact on growth was minimal.
• Debt Reduction and Consumption Growth: American households have managed to reduce their debt burden, which has enabled faster consumption growth. This is attributed to the restructuring of subprime mortgages and efficient bankruptcy procedures.

Key Information

• GDP Growth:
  • US: 6.5%
  • Eurozone: 0.5%
• Private Consumption:
  • US: +4.6%
  • Eurozone: -1.0%
• Public Consumption:
  • US: -0.8%
  • Eurozone: -0.1%
• Investment:
  • US: +2.2%
  • Eurozone: -0.9%

Structural Differences in Debt Management

• No-Recourse Mortgages in the US: In many US states, homeowners who default on subprime mortgages are not held responsible for the remaining debt, which allows them to start fresh.
• Fast Bankruptcy Procedures: The US offers relatively quick personal bankruptcy solutions, enabling households and businesses to discharge debts within a year.
• Slow Bankruptcy Processes in Europe: In contrast, European countries like Italy, Spain, and Greece have lengthy bankruptcy procedures, often requiring 5–7 years of debt service before discharge. In Spain, mortgage debt is never extinguished, even after bankruptcy.

Implications

• The US's ability to quickly resolve debt issues has contributed to its stronger economic recovery.
• The eurozone's slow and strict bankruptcy procedures have hindered the ability of over-indebted households to recover, prolonging economic stagnation.
• The growth gap is not primarily due to austerity measures or the European Central Bank's cautious policies, but rather to structural differences in how debt is managed and resolved.

Recommendations

• European officials should not only focus on structural reforms in labour and product markets but also on overhauling and accelerating bankruptcy procedures.
• This would allow for quicker recognition of losses and enable over-indebted households to rebuild their financial positions, thus supporting economic recovery.

Conclusion

The transatlantic growth gap is rooted in differences in debt management and recovery mechanisms, with the US demonstrating greater resilience due to its more efficient and lenient bankruptcy processes. These structural factors have had a profound impact on consumption and investment, shaping the divergent economic trajectories of the two regions.