2013年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Time_to_reassess_the_European_security_architecture_The_NATO_16页_184kb

Time to Reassess the European Security Architecture?

Core Content

This working paper by Sandra Dias Fernandes explores the evolving dynamics of the European security architecture in light of the changing relationship between Russia, the European Union (EU), and NATO. It argues that the current security landscape is marked by renewed Russian assertiveness, which has led to increased tensions and the need for a re-evaluation of the existing frameworks for cooperation and dialogue.

Main Issues and Key Points

1. Missile Defence: A Controversial Issue

• The US missile defence project in Europe, particularly the deployment of systems in Poland and the Czech Republic, has become a central point of contention.
• The issue is not just technical but also political, as it is linked to NATO enlargement and the broader perception of security threats.
• Russia perceives the missile shield as a threat, especially given the strategic implications of NATO's presence in Eastern Europe.
• The EU is not a suitable forum for discussing missile defence due to its lack of competence in the area and the unanimity voting rule.
• The debate highlights a fundamental disagreement over the legitimacy and role of NATO in European security.

2. Disentangling Security Issues

• Russia has raised two main issues: the suspension of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) and its opposition to NATO enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia.
• The Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (START II) has not been implemented, as Russia withdrew from it after the US left the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002.
• The CFE Treaty is also under pressure due to the Baltic States joining NATO and not ratifying the 1999 adaptation.
• Russia demands a total renegotiation of these treaties to reflect its interests, which has led to a breakdown in multilateral cooperation.
• The Moscow Treaty (SORT) was signed in 2002 to limit nuclear warheads, but it does not address the missile shield issue directly.

3. Effects of Russia's Resurgence

• Since 2007, Russia has regained influence through its energy exports and economic strength.
• This resurgence has affected its perception as a world power and its role in European security.
• Russia's military build-up and reliance on nuclear weapons are seen as responses to perceived threats from NATO.
• The EU and Russia are interdependent, especially economically, but the relationship is asymmetric.
• The EU's energy policy has become more unified, making it easier to engage in multilateral discussions.
• NATO's involvement in energy security is politically sensitive, as it may be seen as overstepping its role.

4. The Medvedev Proposal

• Russian President Dmitry Medvedev proposed a new European security pact to address the growing tensions.
• The proposal was presented as a way to reshape the security architecture and redefine the role of Russia in European affairs.
• It is seen as a rejection of the US-led security model and a call for a multipolar world order.
• The Kennebunkport Summit (2007) and the EU-Russia Summit in Samara (2007) set the tone for the current discourse, with political and security interdependence acknowledged but not resolved.
• The "reset" diplomacy initiative, symbolised by the red button given to Lavrov by Clinton, aimed to improve relations but was met with skepticism due to mistranslations and perceived insincerity.

Conclusion: Back to the Future

• The paper suggests that the security triangle (NATO, EU, Russia) is at a crossroads.
• A new security architecture is needed, one that reflects the resurgence of Russia and the complexity of European security.
• The EU has a significant role to play in improving dialogue with Moscow, especially in the context of a more integrated and cooperative security framework.
• The current stalemate in the security dialogue indicates the need for a more inclusive and balanced approach, considering Russia's interests and the broader implications for European stability.

Key Takeaways

• Missile defence is a symbol of the broader security tensions between the West and Russia.
• NATO enlargement remains a sensitive issue for Russia, especially with respect to Ukraine and Georgia.
• The CFE and START treaties are under pressure due to the evolving security environment and Russian dissatisfaction.
• The Medvedev proposal represents a shift in Russian foreign policy, emphasizing a multipolar vision and a redefined role in European security.
• EU-Russia relations are marked by interdependence and asymmetry, with Russia using energy leverage as a strategic tool.
• Multilateralism is challenged by the preference for bilateral approaches, which undermines the EU's cohesion and effectiveness in security matters.
• The Munich Security Conference and Bucharest summit have played key roles in shaping the current discourse and the future of European security.

References

• Lavrov, S. (2009)
• Medvedev, D. (2008)
• De Hoop Scheffer, P. (2009)
• Osipovich, A. (2008)
• Belton, D. (2008)
• Socor, M. (2007)
• Webb, M. (2008)
• Muller, S. (2007)
• Ryabkov, S. (2008)
• Lander, M. (2009)
• Monaghan, J. (2009)
• Solana, J. (2009)

This paper underscores the importance of a renewed and inclusive European security architecture that acknowledges the changing dynamics and the need for dialogue and cooperation.