2015-12-31-IRENA-Investment_Opportunities_in_Latin_America_Global_Atlas_24页_1mb

Summary of Investment Opportunities in Latin America

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of investment opportunities for grid-connected and off-grid solar and wind projects in Latin America, based on the IRENA Global Atlas for Renewable Energy. The study provides suitability maps and technical potential estimates, helping stakeholders identify ideal locations for renewable energy development.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Purpose and Context

• The document is part of IRENA’s initiative to support the global energy transition by identifying renewable energy potential in Latin America.
• With the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the need for renewable energy investment has increased, and the role of geospatial analysis in guiding such investments is critical.
• The goal is not to provide exact energy resource values, but to offer a pre-feasibility assessment that can support decision-making and investment planning.

2. Methodology

• IRENA uses an opportunity-based approach to evaluate renewable energy potential, which contrasts with traditional exclusion-based methods.
• This approach assigns numerical scores to several suitability dimensions and merges them into a single suitability score.
• The dimensions considered include:
  • Resource intensity
  • Distance to power grids
  • Population density
  • Land cover
  • Topography and slope
  • Altitude
  • Protected areas

3. Technical Potential and Investment Estimates

• The study provides technical potential estimates and equivalent investment values based on a 1% utilization of suitable land with a suitability score of 60% or higher and a grid distance of 75 km.

• Table 1 summarizes the results:

  • Wind, grid-connected: 238 GW, USD 537 billion
  • Wind, off-grid: 184 GW, USD 415 billion
  • Solar PV, grid-connected: 2,154 GW, USD 4,643 billion
  • Solar PV, off-grid: 2,685 GW, USD 5,789 billion
  • Total: 5,260 GW, USD 11,384 billion

• The methodology to convert suitability scores into technical potential is outlined in Table 2, which includes:

  1. Calculating the total surface area with a suitability score above a threshold (e.g., 60%).
  2. Assuming a minor share of the suitable surface (e.g., 1%) is equipped with devices.
  3. Using average installation densities (Wind: 4 MW/km²; Solar: 30 MW/km²).
  4. Calculating technical potential using the formula: P = Suitable surface × 1% × density.
  5. Converting technical potential into equivalent investments (USD 2,258/MW for wind; USD 2,156/MW for solar).

4. Suitability Maps

• The final high-resolution suitability maps (1 km resolution) are available in GIS image format through the IRENA Global Atlas.

• These maps categorize areas based on their suitability score:

  • Yellow: 60–70%
  • Orange: 70–80%
  • Red: >80%

• Figure 2 and Figure 3 illustrate the suitability maps for wind and solar PV respectively, highlighting areas with high potential for both grid-connected and off-grid systems.

5. Application to Latin America

• The analysis includes six dimensions to evaluate the suitability of renewable energy projects:

  • Wind speed
  • Solar irradiance (GHI)
  • Grid distance
  • Population density
  • Topography and slope
  • Protected areas

• Figure 4 and Figure 5 show technical potential estimates for wind and solar PV across Latin America, respectively, by sub-region and in terms of GW and USD.

6. Spatial Resolution and Limitations

• The spatial resolution of the datasets used is important for accuracy:

  • Wind data: 1 km resolution
  • Solar irradiance (GHI): 3 km resolution
  • Grid data: Linear with an expected error of less than 100 m
  • Population density: 1 km resolution
  • Topography and slope: Approx. 100 m resolution
  • Land cover: Approx. 300 m resolution
  • Protected areas: Polygon-based

• The lower resolution of some datasets limits the information content, especially for local analyses. The 1 km resolution for wind and 3 km resolution for solar is used for the final maps.

7. Recommended Use

• The maps are suitable for continental and regional-level planning, but less relevant for local decision-making due to their limited resolution and sensitivity to input data.
• They are intended to initiate discussions with regional and local stakeholders, leading to more detailed analyses and feasibility studies.
• The methodology is simple, replicable, and transparent, with the potential for iterative updates as more data becomes available.

8. Conclusion

• IRENA’s opportunity-based approach provides a new framework for identifying suitable investment locations in renewable energy.
• It emphasizes qualitative analysis over quantitative exclusion, offering a more nuanced and comprehensive view of potential sites.
• The GIS-based maps are a valuable tool for policy, business, and community engagement in the renewable energy transition.