西非投资机会：并网和离网型太阳能和风能项目（英文版）_26页-1mb

Summary of Investment Opportunities in West Africa: Suitability Maps for Grid-Connected and Off-Grid Solar and Wind Projects

Core Content

This document provides a continent-wide pre-feasibility assessment of renewable energy investment opportunities in West Africa, focusing on solar and wind energy for both grid-connected and off-grid systems. It is part of the IRENA Global Atlas for Renewable Energy, which is the world's largest collection of public maps of renewable energy resources.

The study uses a suitability-based methodology to evaluate potential investment sites by considering multiple factors such as resource intensity, distance to power grids, population density, land cover, topography, altitude, and protected areas. The approach is opportunity-based, in contrast to traditional exclusion-based methods, and aims to identify ideal locations for development rather than simply ruling out unsuitable areas.

Main Views and Key Information

• IRENA's Role: IRENA supports the global transition to renewable energy and promotes sustainable development through data and analysis. It is a key platform for international cooperation and knowledge sharing in renewable energy.

• Suitability Maps: The maps offer a high-resolution (1 km) view of renewable energy suitability across West Africa. They are designed to guide investment decisions by showing areas with varying levels of suitability (60-100%) for solar and wind projects.

• Technical Potential: The maps are used to estimate the technical potential in gigawatts (GW) for both grid-connected and off-grid systems. These estimates are derived from a simplified conversion of suitability scores to potential capacity, based on assumed installation densities and grid distances.

• Grid Impact: The study includes two scenarios: one based on current grid infrastructure and another incorporating planned grid extensions. Future grid development significantly increases the technical potential for both solar and wind energy, especially for grid-connected systems.

• Country-Specific Adjustments: Mali and Niger, due to their extremely high solar irradiation and wind speeds, are treated differently. In these countries, only areas with suitability scores above 80% (for off-grid) or 75% (for grid-connected) are considered for detailed analysis, as their high resource availability makes other parameters less influential.

• Methodology: The methodology involves:

  • Assigning numerical values to suitability dimensions.
  • Merging these values into a single score.
  • Using a linear transfer function to create a suitability map (with options for other functions like sigmoid).
  • Applying an un-weighted pixel-to-pixel average to combine multiple dimensions.

• Data Sources: The study draws on data from multiple providers, including Vaisala, Danish Technical University, the European Commission, and others. It is based on a methodology developed in 2013 and refined through collaboration with international experts.

• Recommended Use: The maps are useful for strategic and regional-level assessments, but they may not capture local nuances. Users are advised to complement them with more detailed, local data when making specific investment decisions.

• Limitations: The methodology is not weighted, which may not be suitable for local-level analysis. The results are also sensitive to input data selection and ranges. Therefore, the maps should be used as a starting point rather than a definitive guide.

Key Tables and Figures

• Figure 1: Shows how to download the suitability maps from the IRENA Global Atlas.
• Figure 2: Illustrates the availability of detailed values for each country and technology.
• Figure 3 and 4: Provide examples of suitability maps for wind and solar projects, respectively, with color coding to indicate suitability levels (yellow, orange, red).
• Figure 5 and 6: Display the technical potential for grid-connected and off-grid wind energy, showing how future grid expansion increases potential.
• Figure 7 and 8: Show the technical potential for grid-connected and off-grid solar PV, highlighting the impact of grid development on solar potential.
• Table 1: Details the steps for converting suitability scores into technical potential, including surface area, installation density, and percentage of suitable land.
• Table 2: Lists the steps to download suitability maps.
• Table 3: Outlines the dimensions considered in the analysis, including dataset selection and limitations.

Conclusion

IRENA's suitability maps offer a replicable and transparent methodology for identifying investment opportunities in renewable energy across West Africa. They provide a strategic overview of potential locations for both solar and wind projects, taking into account a variety of environmental, social, and infrastructural factors. While the maps are useful for large-scale planning, they are not intended to replace detailed local analyses. The study underscores the importance of data accuracy, policy support, and market conditions in driving renewable energy investment. The results are a baseline for further exploration and are expected to be updated as more data becomes available.