拉丁美洲投资机会：并网和离网型太阳能和风能项目（英文版）_24页-1mb

Summary of "Investment Opportunities in Latin America: Suitability Maps for Grid-Connected and Off-Grid Solar and Wind Projects"

Core Content

This document presents a continent-wide pre-feasibility assessment of solar and wind energy opportunities in Latin America using IRENA's opportunity-based suitability approach. It provides high-resolution maps (1 km) for grid-connected and off-grid systems, along with aggregated data on technical potential and equivalent investment values.

The main objective is to support investment decisions by identifying suitable locations for renewable energy projects, considering various constraints such as resource intensity, distance to the grid, population density, land cover, topography, altitude, and protected areas.

Main Views and Key Information

1. IRENA's Role and Mission

• IRENA supports countries in transitioning to a sustainable energy future and promotes the use of renewable energy sources.
• Its mission includes helping world leaders double the share of renewable energy by 2030, from the current 18% (IRENA, 2014a).
• Renewable energy can contribute to low-carbon economic growth and socio-economic development.

2. Renewable Energy Investment Trends

• Investment in renewable energy is expected to nearly double from current levels to USD 500 billion annually by 2020 and USD 900 billion by 2030 (IRENA, 2015a).
• The Paris Agreement has shifted the focus of energy analysis from potential assessment to identifying the best investment opportunities.

3. Methodology Overview

• IRENA developed an opportunity-based approach to evaluate renewable energy potential, which contrasts with the traditional exclusion-based method.
• The approach assigns scores to various dimensions and combines them to create a suitability map, offering a more nuanced and detailed evaluation.
• The maps use a linear transfer function and can be adjusted with more complex functions (e.g., sigmoid) for detailed analysis.

4. Suitability Map Details

• The maps display areas with 60–70% suitability in yellow, 70–80% in orange, and >80% in red.
• These maps are available in GIS format and can be accessed through the IRENA Global Atlas.

5. Technical Potential and Investment Estimates

• The study assumes that 1% of the land surface with a suitability score above 60% and 75 km from the grid would be developed.
• The results show:
  • Wind, grid-connected: 238 GW, USD 537 billion
  • Wind, off-grid: 184 GW, USD 415 billion
  • Solar PV, grid-connected: 2,154 GW, USD 4,643 billion
  • Solar PV, off-grid: 2,685 GW, USD 5,789 billion
  • Total: 5,260 GW, USD 11,384 billion

6. Key Dimensions Considered

• Wind: Wind speed at 100 m (m/s), grid distance, population density, topography, land cover, and protected areas.
• Solar: Solar irradiance (GHI), grid distance, population density, topography, land cover, and protected areas.
• The spatial resolution for wind is 1 km, while for solar it is 3 km.

7. Data Providers and Methodology

• Data is sourced from various providers including Vaisala, Danish Technical University (DTU), European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Geomodel, United Nations Environment Programme, Oakridge National Laboratory, and the OpenStreetMap Foundation.
• The methodology was initially developed in 2013 and is based on a peer-reviewed, replicable process.
• The GIS analysis was conducted by Jacinto Estima, with report and analysis by Abdulmalik Oricha Ali and Nicolas Fichaux.

8. Limitations and Recommendations

• The maps are high-resolution but sensitive to input data selection and ranges.
• They are more relevant at the continental and regional level than at the local level, where more detailed data is needed.
• The opportunity-based approach allows for a more detailed and flexible analysis compared to exclusion-based methods.
• Local consultation and validation are crucial when analyzing smaller areas.

Conclusion

IRENA's suitability maps offer a strategic tool for identifying investment opportunities in renewable energy across Latin America. They provide a replicable methodology for evaluating potential, considering multiple dimensions, and are designed to support policy, planning, and investment decisions. The maps are continuously updated through the IRENA Global Atlas and can be used to initiate discussions with stakeholders and local communities.