海湾阿拉伯国家投资机会：并网和离网型太阳能和风能项目（英文版）_22页-1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Investment Opportunities in the GCC

Core Content

This document outlines the IRENA's suitability maps for grid-connected and off-grid solar and wind projects in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It presents a continent-wide pre-feasibility assessment of renewable energy opportunities, focusing on solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy. The analysis is based on a simple and replicable opportunity-based approach, which contrasts with traditional exclusion-based methods.

IRENA aims to support countries in transitioning to a sustainable energy future by providing geospatial data and methodologies for evaluating renewable energy potential. The maps are designed to assist public and private entities in identifying suitable investment locations and initiating dialogue with regional and local stakeholders.

The key dimensions used to assess suitability include resource intensity, distance to power grids, population density, land cover, topography, altitude, and protected areas. These are combined to generate suitability scores ranging from 0% to 100%, with yellow, orange, and red representing 60–70%, 70–80%, and >80% suitability, respectively.

The technical potential for the GCC is summarized as follows:

Grid-connected wind: 65 GW
Off-grid wind: 34 GW
Grid-connected solar PV: 505 GW
Off-grid solar PV: 283 GW
Total technical potential: 888 GW

These values are derived by assuming that 1% of the suitable land surface (with a suitability score >60%) is equipped with renewable energy devices, using installation densities of 4 MW/km² for wind and 30 MW/km² for solar.

The suitability maps are available in GIS format on the IRENA Global Atlas at http://irena.masdar.ac.ae/?map=2146. They can be used for strategic planning, investment decisions, and community engagement.

Main Views

1. Purpose and Context

The document highlights the importance of renewable energy in the context of the Paris Agreement and the global need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
It emphasizes the shift from assessing potential to identifying ideal investment locations.
The IRENA Global Atlas is a key resource that provides public maps of renewable energy resources across 67 countries, with 50 data providers contributing to the dataset.
Suitability maps are not final assessments but strategic tools that support pre-feasibility analyses and investment planning.

2. Methodology

IRENA uses an opportunity-based approach to evaluate renewable energy potential, which involves ranking areas based on multiple factors rather than excluding unsuitable areas.
The methodology is peer-reviewed and replicable, with the goal of providing consistent results across different regions.
The suitability scores are calculated using a linear transfer function and pixel-wise averaging of relevant dimensions.
The exclusion-based approach is limited in its ability to capture complex local conditions and is less precise in its final outcomes.

3. Application to the GCC

The analysis is based on high-resolution datasets (1 km for solar irradiation and wind speed).
Grid-connected systems are prioritized in areas with high resource intensity and proximity to existing grids.
Off-grid systems are considered for remote communities, industries, and mines, where grid access is limited.
Specific examples are given, such as the Dhofar wind farm in Oman and Dubai's solar PV potential, demonstrating the high suitability of certain regions.

4. Limitations and Recommendations

The spatial resolution of the datasets varies, which affects the accuracy and detail of the maps.
Local conditions such as land ownership, intermittent land use, and grid capacity are not fully captured in the continental-scale maps.
The recommended use of the maps is for strategic planning and market prospection, rather than for local implementation.
The methodology should be iteratively updated as more data becomes available and local conditions are better understood.

Key Information

IRENA is an intergovernmental organization that supports the global energy transition.
Renewable energy is expected to double investment from USD 500 billion in 2020 to USD 900 billion by 2030.
Suitability maps help identify ideal locations for renewable energy projects by combining resource data with social, economic, and environmental factors.
The suitability approach is more detailed and flexible than exclusion-based methods.
Data providers include Mines ParisTech, Danish Technical University, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Geomodel, UNEP, Oakridge National Laboratory, and OpenStreetMap Foundation.
The methodology was developed in 2013 and tested in West Africa.

Conclusion

IRENA's suitability maps provide a valuable tool for investment decision-making in the GCC. They are based on a comprehensive and replicable methodology, which includes six key dimensions for continental-scale analysis and allows for local adjustments when needed. These maps support strategic planning, policy development, and community engagement, and are expected to be updated regularly as new data and insights become available.