罗兰贝格-新冠大流行可能会加剧对汽车行业的破坏（英文）-2020.4-14页_5mb

Summary of Automotive Disruption Radar - Issue #7

Core Content

The Automotive Disruption Radar (ADR) Issue #7 highlights the ongoing challenges and transformative trends in the global automotive industry, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 crisis, climate change, and technological advancements. It outlines the evolving landscape of mobility, emphasizing the shift towards electrification, autonomy, and digitalization.

Main Viewpoints

• Market Decline and Uncertainty: The automotive industry is facing declining sales volumes, exacerbated by the impact of the pandemic and existing climate and trade-related pressures. Sales could drop by up to 40%, and the recovery timeline is uncertain.
• Shift in Business Models: Traditional OEMs and suppliers are struggling to adapt, with a passive approach that risks losing market share. In contrast, new entrants like Rivian and Canoo are actively capturing future profit pools through innovative partnerships and mobility services.
• Autonomous Vehicle Development: Testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles are increasing globally. Major players such as Walmart, Air France, and GM are investing in and piloting autonomous solutions, especially in commercial and logistics sectors.
• Technological Advancements: The development of AI and specialized chips is accelerating. Companies like Nvidia and Horizon Robotics are leading the way with more powerful and energy-efficient chips. The number of patents and R&D employees in mobility and autonomous driving continues to grow.
• Infrastructure Growth: Charging infrastructure is expanding rapidly, especially in the Netherlands, China, and South Korea. However, progress in other regions remains uneven, with some countries still lacking sufficient coverage.
• Customer Interest: Despite the downturn, customer interest in electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous vehicles (AVs) remains high. Over 55% of respondents globally are open to using robocabs, and more than 40% are considering purchasing an EV.
• Regulatory Developments: Regulations for autonomous vehicles are expanding, with countries like South Korea and China implementing new rules. Testing areas are becoming more common, with some cities allowing autonomous vehicles on public roads.
• Digital Adoption: Digital tools and services are increasingly accepted by consumers, with over 45% using apps to plan trips weekly. This trend is especially pronounced in traditional automotive markets like Germany, the UK, and the US.

Key Information

Market Trends

• EV Sales Growth: EV and PHEV sales have slowed from double-digit growth to 8% in the 18 surveyed countries.
• Countries Leading in EVs: China and the Netherlands are leading in EV adoption, with the Netherlands having the most developed charging network (over 9 stations per 100 km).
• China's Approach to Autonomy: China is rapidly developing autonomous driving infrastructure, with extensive testing areas around major cities. It is also producing automotive-grade processors, such as those by Horizon Robotics.
• South Korea and Germany: South Korea shows strong customer interest in EVs (55%), while Germany has a high interest in autonomous vehicles (50%) and is progressing in testing and regulation.
• Sweden and Spain: Both countries have high interest in EVs and AVs, with Sweden being a top EV seller globally and Spain showing significant growth in its charging network.
• India and Saudi Arabia: India is showing growing interest in EVs, but sales and infrastructure are still minimal. Saudi Arabia has high app usage but low EV sales due to lack of infrastructure and restrictions.
• USA and Canada: The USA has high rural interest in AVs, while Canada has a more balanced approach with EVs gaining traction.

Technology and Investment

• AI and Chips: Venture capital investments in AI have increased significantly, with major investments in companies like Argo AI and Open AI. New chips like Nvidia's Orin are enabling more advanced autonomous driving capabilities.
• V2V and V2X: Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technologies are spreading, with several models now available in multiple countries.
• Patents and R&D: The number of patents related to autonomous driving has grown, and over 100,000 employees are active in mobility and autonomous driving R&D.

Industry Activities

• Partnerships and Testing: Major companies are forming partnerships and testing autonomous solutions in various regions, including Walmart's collaborations in the US and Air France's shuttle project in France.
• Challenges for Traditional Players: Traditional OEMs and suppliers are lagging in innovation and are missing opportunities for collaboration, risking their position in the new mobility landscape.

Country Rankings

• Top Three Automotive Nations: China and the Netherlands remain first (74 points each), followed by Singapore (73 points).
• EV Adoption: The Netherlands leads in EV/PHEV sales share, while China has the highest number of EV models available.
• AV Interest: Sweden and South Korea have the highest interest in AVs, with over 55% of respondents open to giving up car ownership in favor of robocabs.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is at a critical juncture, with the ongoing crises and technological advancements reshaping the market. Proactive adaptation, investment in innovation, and regulatory progress are essential for survival and leadership in the new mobility era. The ADR provides a comprehensive framework to assess and guide these transformations across the globe.