2025-06-09-花旗集团-联合互联网（UTDI）_联合互联网（UTDI.DE）_隐含剩余价值不应为零_维持买入_14页_556kb

报告摘要

Citi Research Report Summary: United Internet (UTDI.DE)

Rating and Price Target:

Maintain "Buy" rating with an increased price target from €23.74 to €29.00. This reflects stronger performance in listed assets (1&1 and IONOS) and revised EBITDA forecasts.

Key Analysis Points:

The implied rump enterprise value (EV) is near zero but mispriced; assets like the Consumer Application business and the higher-value infrastructure asset 1&1 Versatel are undervalued.
EBITDA is expected to recover post-customer migration complete by end-2025, leading to a 15% growth in FY26E after a 3-year decline. Savings from roaming and VoIP, plus phasing out migration investments, will drive this.
Clarity on tower access, low-band spectrum, and potential regulatory support for 4G build-out are key uncertainties to monitor.
The company's performance (1&1 up 46% YTD, IONOS up 96%) and EBITDA estimates (-6% to -9% for FY25/FY26 due to migration investments) support the price target increase.

Valuation:

Price target raised to €29.00, based on a multiple-based approach, observable market prices of subsidiaries, and a 20% holding company discount for the group's structure.
Near-term EBITDA estimates are lower, but longer-term forecasts are stronger due to faster growth in IONOS and 1&1. The listed assets (1&1 and IONOS) contribute significantly to the upside.

Investment Risks:

Downside risks include: network quality issues leading to customer losses or price cuts; migration challenges from the MBA contract; increased competition in mobile/fixed segments; and higher capex/opex for network rollout.
Upside potential from faster network rollout, strong network quality attracting more customers, favorable pricing, or announcement of a strategic partner for 1&1 Versatel.

Company Overview:

United Internet is focused on digital assets like online advertising infrastructure and mobile infrastructure, with opportunities in 5G rollout and customer migration. Assets are masked by the holding structure but align with secular growth trends in digitalization and infrastructure.

Conclusion:
Citi retains a "Buy" recommendation, emphasizing value in listed assets and the potential for re-rating once migration and regulatory uncertainties are resolved.

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