2025-06-09-花旗集团-盈透证券（IBKR）_盈透证券（IBKR.O）_下调至中性评级_12页_624kb

Action:

• Downgraded Interactive Brokers (IBKR.O) from 'Buy' to 'Neutral' on 09 Jun 2025.

Citigroup's Take

Strength:

• Historically strong account growth (avg ~30% annualized over last 5 months).
• Resilient retail trading activity (avg 3.1M DARTs monthly in 2025, up 40% YoY).
• Equity market improvement since mid-April supports stock price recently.

Caution:

• Valuation near upper end of historic range (~29x forward P/E).
• Projected slower account growth in the second half of the year compared to Q1.

Rating & Price Target:

• Neutral rating with a revised target price of US$215 (from US$205).
• Justifies 28x 2026E EPS estimate.

Expected Financial Performance

• Price return: 1.5%.
• Dividend yield: 0.5%.
• Total return: 2.0%.

Catalysts to Watch

• Lower-than-expected account growth.
• Weaker economic growth reducing trading volumes.
• Regulatory changes in key markets.
• Increased competition.

Maintaining Conviction on Fundamentals

• Strong growth story; best-in-class account growth.
• Geographical diversity (70% international).
• Pristine balance sheet & profitability.

Recommendation:
Systematically downgrading to Neutral, reflecting a balanced view at current levels, but preferring to wait for a more attractive entry point.