2024年第一季度天然气报告（英）-87页_7mb

报告摘要

Overview

Global natural gas markets gradually rebalanced in 2023 due to tightened supply fundamentals, higher prices benefiting users, and exceptionally mild weather reducing demand.
Natural gas consumption declined slightly in 2023 due to tightened supply fundamentals (e.g., declining Russian piped gas to Europe) and strong renewables expansion.
2024 sees strong demand-driven growth led by Asia and gas-rich economies, though vulnerabilities persist (e.g., geopolitical tensions, shipping constraints, project delays).

Market Dynamics

Prices: Declined significantly in 2023 (e.g., TTF prices down ~70%, JKM prices down ~60%), though prices remain above long-term averages. Volatility decreased due to lower inventory levels.
Demand Growth: Slowed in 2023, with industry and power sectors as key drivers. Residential/commercial demand fell due to efficiency gains and mild weather.
Supply Security Focus: Enhanced by initiatives like the EU’s Joint Gas Purchasing mechanism, centralised procurement in Singapore, and India’s unified pipeline tariffs.

2024 Outlook

Global gas demand projected to grow by 2.5% due to industry and residential/commercial recovery, though constrained by limited LNG supply growth.
Prices expected to rise with average weather conditions and weaker liquidity (compared to 2023).
Gas-to-power demand growth capped in mature markets.

Low-Emissions Gases

Supportive policies accelerate deployment of biomethane, hydrogen (e.g., EU hydrogen bank, US strategy), and e-methane.
International projects demonstrate supply chain development for carbon-neutral fuels.

GHG Emissions

Methane/CO₂ emissions remain a critical priority; efforts include enhanced measurement, CCUS, electrification, and international agreements (e.g., Global Methane Pledge).
Uncertainty persists in supply chains due to diverse methodologies and project delays.

Sources