情绪波动与货币：金融科技与家庭信贷-英-51页_611kb

Mood Swings and Money: The Role of Financial Technology in Household Credit Demand

Introduction

FinTech lending platforms, such as Prosper Marketplace, enable quick and easy access to credit, reducing transaction costs and increasing loan demand. This study examines how transient mood swings, proxied by hourly local sunshine, affect household credit demand and outcomes.

Key Findings

• Credit Demand Effects: Sunshine (positive sentiment) increases loan applications by 2% during sunny hours compared to cloudy hours at the extensive margin. At the intensive margin, requested loan amounts, loan-to-income (LTI) ratios, and monthly payment-to-income ratios increase by 1.3-1.4%, suggesting sentiment-driven overconsumption.
• Loan Outcomes: Positive sentiment leads to higher default rates (charge-offs). For instance, moving from cloudy to sunny hours increases the charge-off probability by 0.39 percentage points overall. Low-income borrowers (incidence increases by 5.3 percentage points) and first-time borrowers (charge-off rate increases by 2.4%) are disproportionately affected.
• Heterogeneity: Effects are concentrated in inexperienced borrowers; experienced borrowers show reduced vulnerability through learning and self-correction, with higher withdrawal rates from sunny-hour applications.
• Loan Composition: Sentiment increases demand for discretionary loans (e.g., large purchases, vacations) by 1.1%, but does not affect business loans or reduce debt consolidation demand.
• Causal Identification: Hourly sunshine variation serves as an exogenous instrument, and controls confirm no effects on loan pricing or funding from the platform or investors, isolating sentiment's impact on demand.

Implications

• Experienced borrowers learn to correct sentiment-driven errors, suggesting cooling-off periods could protect households from impulsive decisions.
• Policy recommendations include implementing regulations like cooling-off periods to mitigate negative financial outcomes.

Conclusion

FinTech facilitates sentiment effects on credit demand, leading to potential overborrowing and financial harm, particularly for vulnerable groups. Insights highlight the importance of behavioral considerations in credit markets and consumer protection.