2018-越南的综合灾害风险管理（英文版）-1mb

Summary of "Toward Integrated Disaster Risk Management in Vietnam"

Core Content

This report, published by the World Bank in 2017, analyzes the 2015–2016 drought and saltwater intrusion (SWI) crisis in Vietnam and outlines recommendations for improving disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) across key sectors. It emphasizes the need for integrated, multi-hazard approaches to build longer-term resilience against climate-related risks, particularly in agriculture, water resource management, and rural livelihoods.

Main Findings

• Vietnam's vulnerability to climate change is increasing, with adverse effects of El Niño and complex water resource management challenges exacerbating the 2015–2016 drought and SWI crisis.
• 18 provinces were severely affected, with significant economic losses estimated at VND 15,032 billion (~US$674 million), or 0.35% of national GDP.
• The GDP growth in 2016 was 6.2%, below the government's target of 6.7% and partly due to agricultural losses.
• Poor and near-poor households, women, and ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by disasters, highlighting the need for inclusive and community-based DRM strategies.
• Institutional fragmentation across sectors (agriculture, water, energy) hinders effective DRM and CCA integration, especially at the river basin and watershed levels.
• Current policies and programs are not sufficiently coordinated, leading to gaps in implementation and limited resilience-building capacity.

Key Recommendations

The report proposes a phased approach to address both immediate and long-term challenges:

Short Term

• Evaluate multi-sector coordination and implementation challenges related to drought and SWI.
• Identify gaps in policies, programs, and investments by MARD, MoNRE, and other relevant ministries.
• Develop and implement a dedicated task force under the Central Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control (CCNDPC) to address drought and SWI specifically.

Medium Term

• Empower the CCNDPC to act as a central coordination body for DRM and CCA.
• Integrate a national drought program within broader DRM and CCA frameworks.
• Implement contingency budgets, disaster reserves, and insurance mechanisms to support rapid response and recovery.

Long Term

• Mainstream integrated water resource management (IWRM) and climate-sensitive land-use planning across river basins, coastal zones, and watersheds.
• Promote climate-smart agricultural practices in crops, livestock, and aquaculture.
• Strengthen community-based DRM and CCA through inclusive planning and skilled human resources.
• Enhance social assistance programs to support vulnerable households, including cash transfers and public work programs.

Case Studies and Global Experiences

The report draws on international examples to guide Vietnam's DRM and CCA strategies:

• Mexico's National Program Against Drought (PRONACOSE): A proactive and preventive approach involving training, awareness, and interagency coordination.
• Brazil's Transition to Proactive Drought Management: A national policy with three pillars: monitoring and forecasting, vulnerability assessments, and mitigation and response planning.
• China's Public-Private Partnership in Agricultural Insurance: A model for financial protection that can be adapted to Vietnam.
• Thailand's Restricting Rice Production and Sales as Emergency Response: A strategy that can be considered for managing agricultural impacts of drought.
• Vietnam's Ongoing Activities: Examples of current efforts to integrate DRM across sectors.

Role of the World Bank

The World Bank has substantial experience in supporting Vietnam's DRM and CCA efforts through:

• Financial and technical support for implementing and adopting recommended measures.
• Projects in sustainable agriculture, water resource management, and climate change adaptation.
• Aims to assist Vietnam in recovery efforts and building longer-term resilience.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Unplanned urban development, inappropriate land use, and ecosystem degradation are key drivers of disaster risk in Vietnam.
• Insufficient insurance coverage (only 5% of assets) and lack of systematic planning for DRM and CCA hinder resilience.
• Investing in DRM now is essential to ensure sustainable development and economic stability in the face of increasing climate risks.

Conclusion

The 2015–2016 drought and SWI crisis underscore the urgent need for Vietnam to adopt an integrated DRM and CCA framework. This includes improving multi-sector coordination, enhancing early warning systems, and implementing financial and social protection strategies. The report highlights the importance of inclusive planning, community engagement, and policy reform to build a more resilient future for Vietnam and its people.

Key Tables and Figures

• Figure O.1: Drought- and SWI-affected provinces in Vietnam.
• Table O.1: Summary of the damage impact of the 2015–2016 drought and SWI across 18 provinces.

Abbreviations

Key Statistics

• 18 provinces were severely affected by the 2015–2016 drought and SWI.
• 243,762 hectares of rice production were affected.
• 168,064 hectares of crops and 69,008 hectares of aquaculture were impacted.
• 457,796 households lacked access to water.
• Total economic loss: ~VND 15,032 billion (~US$674 million).
• 2016 GDP growth: 6.2%, below the government's target of 6.7%.
• Drought risk: Potential for losses exceeding 9% of GDP per capita in major disasters.