2025-06-09-Bernstein-日产汽车公司（7201）_日产_第一季度利润可能看起来好于指引_但实现好转的道路将艰难_17页_3mb

Nissan Motor Co Ltd 报告摘要

Analyst: Masahiro Akita
Date: 9 June 2025
Rating: Underperform
Price Target: ¥250 (Current price: ¥359.50)
Recommendation: Analyst maintains "Underperform" rating and ¥250 price target, citing concerns over U.S. tariffs, structural headwinds, and slow execution of recovery plans.

Key Highlights:

1. Q1 Performance & Guidance:

   • Nissan’s Q1 operating loss is expected to be less severe than the company’s guidance (JPY -200bn), but risks remain.
   • Challenges include inventory management, fleet sales, and U.S. import tariffs.

2. FY3/26-27 Financial Projections:

   • Operating Profit: Lowered to JPY -160bn (FY3/26) and JPY 110bn (FY3/27).
   • Global Sales: Forecasted at 3.161mn units (down 5.5% YoY) due to U.S. price hikes from tariffs.
   • Cost Savings: Re:Nissan plan targets JPY 250bn in cost reductions by FY3/27.

3. Strategic Implications:

   • Analyst suggests potential benefits from collaboration with Honda (batteries, eAxle) or Hon Hai (EV manufacturing), though merger discussions are unlikely to resume soon.
   • Launch of new models (Leaf, Sentra, Rogue PHEV) is expected to offset some sales declines in key markets.

4. Valuation:

   • Target PBR: 0.17x (against FY3/27 BPS estimate of JPY 1580).
   • Market cap risk due to negative outlook.

Investment Warning:

The stock may not fully price in U.S. tariff impacts and structural weaknesses. Analyst remains cautious on recovery feasibility and top-line momentum.