2025-05-23-Jefferies-FBIN看起来超卖；摩恩宣布标价提高8_8页_267kb

Equity Research Summary: Building Products

Key Highlights:

1. Price Increases:

• FBIN & Delta (Moën): Announced an ~8% price increase for plumbing and accessories, effective June 22nd. This is the first significant price adjustment since tariffs were introduced, influenced by China import costs.
• MAS: Announced earlier price hikes (~HSD% across plumbing brands) effective May 5th. Total YTD pricing increased ~LDD% due to these adjustments combined with regular annual increases.
• Kohler: Noted similar price adjustments.

2. Tariff Impact & Cost Headwinds:

• FBIN: Estimated ~$175 million annualized cost headwind (~18% of EBITDA) under 30% reciprocal tariffs, reduced from $525 million at 30% due to existing agreements.
• MAS: ~$185 million annualized cost impact (~12% of EBITDA), significantly less severe than prior estimates.
• Tariffs are easing due to a US-China trade pause, reducing temporary tariffs to 30%.

3. Valuation & Discounting:

• FBIN: Trading at 8.9x 2025E EV/EBITDA, approximately a 20% discount to its historical average (~11.3x).
• MAS: Trading at 11.9x 2025E EV/EBITDA, consistent with its historical multiple.
• Analysts view both companies as currently oversold due to discounting.

4. Earnings Impact & Target Prices:

• FBIN: Potentially modest positive price-cost spread achievable due to price adjustments. EPS could reach ~$3.94 (3% upside to consensus) assuming neutral volume headwinds.
• MAS: Neutral price-cost spread seems achievable with ~$100 million positive price-cost tailwind. EPS could reach ~$3.87 (9% upside from current consensus).

5. Investment Recommendations:

• FBIN: BUY rating, price target based on 11.9x 2025E EV/EBITDA. Risks include US residential slowdown, multiple compression, and M&A execution issues.
• MAS: HOLD rating, price target based on 13.4x 2025E EV/EBITDA. Risks include demand volatility, tariff impact, operational issues, and market share loss.

Note: Both companies face pressure from reliance on Chinese imports; however, price increases and adjusted tariff scenarios indicate improved manageability of costs.