20160824-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_33页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of company results and market updates for various regions including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It also includes key indices, top picks, corporate events, and financial metrics for selected companies. The summary highlights performance, financials, and outlook for each company, along with analyst recommendations and market-related catalysts.

China: Agile Property Holdings (3383 HK)

1H16 Performance:
- Core earnings in line with expectations.
- Gross margin fell to a historical low due to price cuts to facilitate destocking.
- Core net profit was Rmb915m, down 4.3% yoy and slightly below forecast.
- Net profit dropped 37.4% yoy due to one-off items.
Key Financials (Rmbm):
- Revenue: Rmb22,558 (up 30.4% yoy)
- Gross profit: Rmb4,515 (down 12.0% yoy)
- Core net profit: Rmb915 (down 4.3% yoy)
- Net gearing ratio: 63.1% (down from 78.4% in 2015)
Outlook:
- Margins are expected to bottom out in 2H16 and improve to 23% for the year.
- Destocking impact is expected to fade in 2017, with higher-margin projects in Guangzhou, Zhongshan, Huizhou, Hainan, and Nanjing expected to drive margin recovery.
- The company has resumed landbanking with a Rmb80b sales target for 2018, but its concentrated landbank exposure is a risk.
Valuation & Recommendation:
- HOLD recommendation.
- Target Price: HK$4.68
- Upside: +4.5% from current price (HK$4.48).
- Dividend Yield: 4.7% (2016F).
Corporate Events:
- Upcoming group meeting on 25 Aug 2016.
Stock Data:
- GICS Sector: Financials
- Bloomberg Ticker: 3383 HK
- Shares Issued (m): 3,917.0
- Market Cap (HK$m): 17,548.4
- 3-Month Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 2.5
Price Performance:
- 1-month: -3.0%
- 3-month: +19.5%
- 6-month: +24.7%
- 1-year: +18.2%
- YTD: +10.6%
- 52-Week High/Low: HK$4.96 / HK$3.22

China: ENN Energy Holdings (2688 HK)

1H16 Performance:
- Core earnings rose 19% yoy, 6% ahead of consensus.
- Net profit increased 29.3% yoy to Rmb1,587m, 3% ahead of consensus.
- NG sales volume increased 17.2% yoy, with a 23% increase in residential sales and 7.4% in commercial & industrial.
- Vehicle gas sales rose 2.1% yoy, but CNG sales dropped 12.2% yoy due to low oil prices.
Key Financials (Rmbm):
- Revenue: Rmb15,639 (down 1.6% yoy)
- EBITDA: Rmb3,650 (up 18.3% yoy)
- Gross profit: Rmb3,732 (up 15.1% yoy)
- Core earnings: Rmb1,650 (up 18.9% yoy)
- EPS: 147 fen (up 29.3% yoy)
Outlook:
- Earnings growth is expected to continue due to supportive clean energy policies in China.
- The company is expected to benefit from coal-gas conversion and increased NG usage.
Valuation & Recommendation:
- BUY recommendation.
- Target Price: HK$58.00
- Upside: +40.8% from current price (HK$41.20).
Stock Data:
- GICS Sector: Utilities
- Bloomberg Ticker: 2688 HK
- Shares Issued (m): 1,082.3
- Market Cap (HK$m): 44,591.9
- 3-Month Avg Daily Turnover (US$m): 9.5
Price Performance:
- 1-month: +5.2%
- 3-month: +13.7%
- 6-month: +12.3%
- 1-year: +7.6%
- YTD: -0.4%
- 52-Week High/Low: HK$47.15 / HK$31.95

Malaysia: IOI Corporation (IOI MK)

FY16 Performance:
- Core net profit of RM900m, down 4.8% yoy, due to poor upstream and downstream performance.
- Results were in line with expectations.
Recommendation:
- SELL recommendation.
- Target Price: RM3.60
- Current Price: RM4.43

Malaysia: Kossan Rubber (KRI MK)

2Q16 Performance:
- Earnings slipped 20% qoq due to production losses from ongoing plant revamp and a steep qoq appreciation of the ringgit.
- Downgrade to HOLD.
Recommendation:
- HOLD recommendation.
- Target Price: RM6.18
- Current Price: RM6.24

Malaysia: Sime Darby (SIME MK)

FY16 Performance:
- Core net profit of RM1,149m, down 34.9% yoy, within expectations.
- Earnings likely to bottom out, with marginal improvement expected in FY17.
Recommendation:
- HOLD recommendation.
- Target Price: RM7.50
- Current Price: RM7.80

Indonesia: Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ)

1H16 Performance:
- Net profit grew 13.9% yoy.
- Stock trading at +1 SD historical PE.
Recommendation:
- HOLD recommendation.
- Target Price: Rp8,800
- Current Price: Rp9,350

Singapore: SMRT Corporation (MRT SP)

Update:
- Accept the offer and move on.

Thailand: Amata Corporation (AMATA TB)

Update:
- Earnings uncertainty remains high.

Key Indices (as of 24 August 2016)

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	18547.3	0.1	0.0	-0.1	6.4
S&P 500	2186.9	0.2	0.4	0.5	7.0
FTSE 100	6868.5	0.6	-0.4	2.1	10.0
AS30	5647.1	0.6	0.4	1.3	5.7
CSI 300	3341.8	0.2	-1.1	3.6	-10.4
FSSTI	2850.4	0.3	-0.3	-3.2	-1.1
HSCEI	9587.0	-0.2	-1.2	6.1	-0.8
HSI	22998.9	0.0	0.4	4.7	4.9
JCI	5417.1	-0.2	1.8	4.2	17.9
KLCI	1683.1	-0.5	-1.0	1.5	-0.6
KOSPI	2049.9	0.4	0.1	2.0	4.5
Nikkei 225	16497.4	-0.6	-0.6	-0.8	-13.3
SET	1540.1	0.1	0.2	2.0	19.6
TWSE	9030.9	0.5	-0.9	0.2	8.3
BDI	692	0.7	0.7	-3.6	44.8
CPO (RM/ml)	2818	-1.5	4.4	19.0	28.1
Brent Crude (US$/bbl)	50	1.6	1.5	9.3	34.0

Top Picks (BUY)

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Upside (%)
Air China	753 HK	5.93	9.00	51.8
Ping An Insurance	2318 HK	40.70	47.00	15.5
Ciputra Property	CTRP LJ	620.00	960.00	54.8
Indosat	ISAT LJ	6,150.00	9,500.00	54.5
Genting Bhd	GENT MK	8.06	10.40	29.0
City Dev	CIT SP	8.68	10.36	19.4
OCBC	OCBC SP	8.48	10.48	23.6
Bangkok Dusit	BDMS TB	23.20	25.75	11.0
Siam Cement	SCC TB	510.00	630.00	23.5

Sell Recommendation

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Downside (%)
Hartalega	HART MK	4.29	3.10	-27.7

Key Assumptions (GDP % yoy)

Region	2015	2016F	2017F
US	2.4	2.5	2.7
Euro Zone	1.6	1.5	1.6
Japan	0.5	0.6	0.8
Singapore	2.0	2.2	3.2
Malaysia	5.0	4.2	5.0
Thailand	2.8	3.2	3.6
Indonesia	4.8	5.0	5.5
Hong Kong	2.4	2.1	1.8
China	6.9	6.5	6.2

Key Metrics (2015-2018F)

Metric	2015	2016F	2017F	2018F
EBITDA Margin (%)	18.7	17.1	18.2	18.7
Pre-tax Margin (%)	14.4	14.3	15.7	16.4
Core Net Margin (%)	5.6	5.3	6.0	6.4
ROA (%)	2.0	2.9	3.1	3.2
ROE (%)	7.1	7.9	9.0	9.4
Net Debt/Equity (%)	69.3	71.9	71.8	72.3
Interest Cover (x)	2.4	2.4	2.2	2.2

Conclusion

The report highlights mixed results across different regions, with some companies performing well and others facing challenges.
Agile Property Holdings and ENN Energy Holdings are key companies with HOLD and BUY recommendations, respectively.
IOI Corporation and Kossan Rubber received SELL and HOLD recommendations due to weak performance.
The key indices show a mixed trend, with some indices up and others down, indicating market volatility.
Corporate events are scheduled in various regions, with a focus on investor meetings and roadshows.
The economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, with key assumptions about GDP growth across different regions.