20160321-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_33页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 21 March 2016
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of stock performance, company results, and market outlook for various regions and companies, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It also includes key financial metrics, analyst insights, and investment recommendations.
Main Points and Key Information
China
-
China Overseas Land (688 HK)
- Recommendation: BUY
- Current Price: HK$26.15
- Target Price: HK$33.12
- Upside: +26.7%
- Key Highlights:
- 2015 results showed resilient core net profit growth (HK$29,017m, +31.9% yoy).
- Gross margin is expected to recover to 30% in 2016.
- The company's net gearing ratio improved to 6.8% (from 28.1% in 2015), indicating a healthier financial position.
- Dividend payment increased significantly to HK$0.92/share, with a 29.3% payout ratio based on core earnings.
- The deal with CITIC may lead to RNAV dilution, but the company's financials remain strong.
- Upgraded 2016-17 core net profit forecasts by 2.8% and 5.6% respectively due to the CITIC deal.
-
Tianneng Power (819 HK)
- Recommendation: BUY (upgraded from SELL)
- Current Price: HK$5.68
- Target Price: HK$7.50
- Upside: +32%
- Key Highlights:
- 2015 net profit of Rmb611m, exceeding expectations by 9%.
- Strong performance in the EV battery segment, with sales revenue growth of 32% (electric tricycle) and 82% (low-speed EVs).
- Gross margin improved to 13.6% from 9% in 2014.
- Dividend resumed in 2015 with a payout ratio of 49%, and management aims for a 30% steady ratio.
- Upgraded 2016-17 EPS forecasts by 19-22% due to improved business performance.
-
Other Companies:
- Towngas China (1083 HK): HOLD, with core earnings up 1% yoy, below expectations.
- Wasion Group Holdings (3393 HK): SELL, with profit down 12% and receivable days increasing.
- China's GDP Growth (2016F): 6.7%, with key sectors like real estate and manufacturing showing positive trends.
Indonesia
- Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ): NOT RATED, focusing on retail expansion, refinancing, and margin expansion in 2016.
Malaysia
- Berjaya Sports Toto (BST MK): HOLD, with 3QFY16 results below expectations due to high prize payout and weak motor division performance.
- IJM Plantations (IJMP MK): SELL, trading at 26x FY17F PE, with potential impact from dryness in Sabah estates.
Singapore
- Genting Hong Kong (GENHK SP): HOLD, with disappointing 2015 earnings and share price recovery.
- Super Group (SUPER SP): SELL, with recovery already priced in.
Thailand
- CH Karnchang (CK TB): BUY, with expected earnings surge over 200% due to contributions from associates and related companies.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17602.3 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 7.4 | 1.0 |
| S&P 500 | 2049.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 6.9 | 0.3 |
| FTSE 100 | 6189.6 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 4.0 | -0.8 |
| AS30 | 5239.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 4.6 | -2.0 |
| CSI 300 | 3172.0 | 1.5 | 5.1 | 3.9 | -15.0 |
| FSSTI | 2906.8 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 9.4 | 0.8 |
| HSI | 20671.6 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 7.2 | -5.7 |
| KLCI | 1716.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16724.8 | -1.2 | -1.3 | 4.7 | -12.1 |
| SET | 1383.0 | 0.2 | -0.7 | 4.8 | 7.4 |
| TWSE | 8810.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| BDI | 395 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 25.4 | -17.4 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2544 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 15.6 |
| Brent Crude (US$/bbl) | 41 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 25.1 | 10.7 |
Top Picks (BUY)
- Beijing Capital (694 HK): Potential upside of +44.3%, target price HK$11.40
- ICBC (1398 HK): Potential upside of +16.6%, target price HK$5.05
- Bank BJB (BJBR IJ): Potential upside of +26.7%, target price HK$1,140.00
- WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK): Potential upside of +25.8%, target price HK$2.05
- Maybank (MAY MK): Potential upside of +7.2%, target price HK$9.55
- City Developments (CIT SP): Potential upside of +38.3%, target price HK$10.86
- DBS (DBS SP): Potential upside of +9.1%, target price HK$17.48
- Charoen (CPF TB): Potential upside of +38.2%, target price HK$30.00
- Siam (SCC TB): Potential upside of +37.0%, target price HK$630.00
Top Picks (SELL)
- Spurakencana (SAKP MK): Potential downside of -34.1%, target price HK$1.43
- Sembcorp (SMM SP): Potential downside of -49.6%, target price HK$0.88
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP (yoy) 2014 | GDP (yoy) 2015F | GDP (yoy) 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Japan | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Malaysia | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Thailand | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| China | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
- Brent Crude (2015): US$41/bbl, with a potential 25.1% increase
- CPO (2015): RM2544/mt, with a potential 15.6% increase
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Begin | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCL Display Technology Holdings Roadshow | Taipei | 21 Mar | 22 Mar |
| ASEAN Conference | Taiwan | 22 Mar | 23 Mar |
| China MeiDong Auto Roadshow | Hong Kong | 22 Mar | 23 Mar |
| Country Garden Roadshow | Kuala Lumpur | 24 Mar | 24 Mar |
| Wenzhou Kangning Hospital Roadshow | Shanghai | 31 Mar | 31 Mar |
| Concord New Energy Roadshow | Hong Kong | 31 Mar | 31 Mar |
| TCL Multimedia Roadshow | Hong Kong | 5 Apr | 5 Apr |
| MicroPort Scientific Corporation Roadshow | Hong Kong | 7 Apr | 7 Apr |
| Coslight Technology Roadshow | Hong Kong | 8 Apr | 8 Apr |
| Shenzhen Investment Corporate Roadshow | Taipei | 19 Apr | 20 Apr |
Analysts
- Edison Bian: +852 2236 6761, edison.bian@uobkayhian.com.hk
- David Yang: +8621 5404 7225 ext 801, davidyang@uobkayhian.com
- Ken Lee: +852 2236 6760, ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Sophie Yu: +852 2826 1392, sophie.yu@uobkayhian.com.hk
Summary of Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | 2015 | 2016F | 2017F | 2018F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA Margin | 30.9% | 27.9% | 28.4% | 28.8% |
| Pre-Tax Margin | 33.0% | 28.3% | 28.7% | 29.1% |
| Net Margin | 22.5% | 19.3% | 19.4% | 19.6% |
| ROA | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% |
| ROE | 17.8% | 17.1% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| Turnover Growth | 6.9% | 22.7% | 18.8% | 17.8% |
| Pre-Tax Profit Growth | 10.2% | 5.4% | 20.5% | 19.2% |
| Net Profit Growth | 22.5% | 5.4% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| Net Profit (adj.) Growth | 31.9% | 21.0% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| EPS Growth | 16.8% | 1.9% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| PE (x) | 8.3 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.3 |
| P/B (x) | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | - |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 5.6 | 4.2 | 3.9 | - |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 6.4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.6 |
| Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (%) | 22.5 | 24.5 | 16.4 | 7.3 |
| Interest Cover (x) | 7.4 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 10.9 |
| ROE (%) | 20.2 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.5 |
Conclusion
The report highlights positive developments in the Chinese real estate and battery sectors, with China Overseas Land and Tianneng Power both receiving upgrades. The focus is on improved financials, stronger earnings, and potential growth drivers. Other markets like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore show mixed results, with some companies being downgraded or maintained at HOLD. The document also provides key indices, corporate events, and analyst contact details to support the investment recommendations.
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