2025-2034年农业展望报告（英）_166页_3mb

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 Summary

• Market Trends: Global agricultural consumption grows by 13% (2022-24 to 2034), driven by rising incomes and urbanization in middle-income countries. Food demand increases, with livestock products expanding, leading to higher emissions, though productivity gains aim to mitigate environmental impacts.

• Production Forecasts: Output rises by 14% (2022-24 to 2034) via productivity gains (yield improvements, feed efficiency, and technology adoption), particularly in middle-income countries. Crop yields are expected to increase significantly in Africa and Asia.

• Trade Dynamics: International trade remains vital for food security, with consumption and production patterns shifting global trade flows. Trade surpluses grow in major exporting regions (e.g., Latin America, Africa), while import demand increases in others (e.g., Asia, Africa). Price volatility could arise from geopolitical or climate disruptions.

• Price Projections: Real commodity prices decline, reflecting productivity gains. Trade flows stabilize at around 22% of consumed calories crossing borders. Biofuel prices fall in real terms due to competition from fossil fuels if adoption trends slow.

• Key Challenges: Feeding a growing population sustainably requires balancing productivity gains with emission control. Emission reduction technologies and sustainable practices are critical. Biofuel demand grows slowly, constrained by policies and rising EV adoption.