韩国央行-气候变化对韩国经济的影响_基于函数数据的聚合VAR（英）-2025.8_51页_2mb

Summary

Methodology:

• Employed high-dimensional functional data analysis and the Instrumental Factor Model (IFM) to construct a Global Climate Index (GCI) based on global temperature data from over 18,000 weather stations.
• Developed localized weather indices for South Korea to quantify seasonal variations in temperature, precipitation, and extreme events.
• Utilized an aggregated Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to analyze the dynamic effects of the GCI and local weather variations on Korean macroeconomic indicators, including GDP and CPI.
• Conducted impulse response analysis and local projections to assess the immediate and long-term impacts of climate shocks and weather fluctuations on the Korean economy.

Key Findings:

• Global temperature shocks have significantly negative and persistent effects on Korean GDP and CPI.
• Local weather variations, though volatile, exert minimal direct influence on Korean macroeconomic variables.
• The Korean economy is primarily vulnerable to global climate trends, rather than local weather patterns.
• The aggregated VAR framework effectively disentangles global and local effects in the context of climate-economy interactions.