2021-08-31-布鲁盖尔研究所-能否在不影响经济增长的情况下应对气候变化_（英）_30页_343kb

Climate Change Mitigation and Economic Growth: Authors' Position

Klaas Lenaerts, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram B. Wolff argue that climate change can be tackled without abandoning economic growth, rejecting so-called "degrowth" theories.

Key Arguments

1. Decoupling Challenge:

• Current global CO₂ emissions have been declining at about 1.8% per year since 1990, requiring a last-minute acceleration to -8.7% annual decoupling rate to reach net-zero by 2050.
• The EU achieved a -3.4% average decoupling rate (1990-2016), 2.5 times better than global decoupling but still requiring significant acceleration.

2. Rejection of Degrowth:

• The authors contend that degrowth arguments ignore past experience with technological innovation and understate population growth ambitions of developing nations.
• They assert degrowth proposals are incompatible with capitalism and would face massive negative welfare effects.

Pathway to Green Growth

3. Policy Recommendations and Needed Actions:

• Massive Investment in Green Technologies: Increased investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency is essential.
• Breakthrough Technologies: Development of carbon capture, green hydrogen, and advanced batteries under state support.
• Behavioral Change: Needed alongside technological solutions for comprehensive decoupling.
• Negative Emission Technologies: Considered supplementary to emissions reductions but should not substitute direct reduction measures.
• Climate Adaptation: Investment parallel to mitigation efforts, especially for high-yield regions.

The core proposition is that continued GDP growth is compatible with deep decarbonization through technological advancement and policy implementation.