2024-09-09-韩国央行-金融稳定报告（2024年6月）（英）_155页_4mb

报告摘要

Financial Stability Report: Key Summary

Executive Summary

Korea's financial system remains stable overall, with key indicators showing resilience despite concerns about potential vulnerabilities. Financial institutions have maintained strong capital adequacy and liquidity, while the external payment capacity remains robust.

Key findings include:

Public and private leverage remains high, with private credit growth slowing significantly since 2023.
Household debt continues to grow steadily, with real estate-related loans remaining a major component despite recent policy efforts to manage household debt.
Corporate sectors face increasing interest payment burdens amid global monetary policy shifts.
Real estate sector risks persist, particularly in the context of a prolonged global monetary tightening.

The Bank of Korea has enhanced its stress testing framework to better assess vulnerabilities using microdata, revealing that institutions with concentrated exposure to vulnerable borrowers are more susceptible to shocks. Current financial conditions are monitored closely, and policies are being implemented to address emerging risks.

Analysis of Financial Stability Issues

Macro Leverage Assessment

Korea's macro leverage ratio is relatively high compared to advanced economies:

Household leverage was 93.5% (100.4% before a GDP base year revision)
Corporate leverage stood at 113.9% (122.3% before revision)
Government leverage was 43.9% (not adjusted by GDP revision)

Stress Test Model Reestablishment

A new microdata-based stress test model has been developed to improve accuracy:

Incorporates borrower-level data for more granular risk assessment
Segments institutions based on borrower vulnerability
Revealed that institutions with higher exposures to vulnerable borrowers experience greater credit losses under stress scenarios
Korean financial institutions generally maintained capital ratios above regulatory standards even under severe shock scenarios

Sector-Specific Analysis

Credit Markets

Household credit growth has moderated, but remains concentrated in real estate-related loans
Corporate credit saw a decline in interest coverage ratios in 2023
Vulnerable borrowers (low-income or low-credit individuals) continue to drive loan growth

Asset Markets

Bond and stock markets experienced volatility amid global monetary policy uncertainty
Real estate market declined nationally but showed localized increases, particularly in the Seoul metropolitan area
PF (Project Finance) related exposures remain a significant concern for non-bank deposit-taking institutions

Resilience Evaluation

Financial Institutions

Banks maintain strong capital buffers despite increasing loan losses
Mutual savings banks and mutual credit cooperatives show varying levels of resilience, with branches having higher exposures to corporate loans showing greater vulnerability
Non-bank financial institutions generally demonstrate sound financial positions

External Payment Capacity

Net external assets increased in 2024 following a period of decline
Short-term external debt decreased as official foreign reserves provided stability
Korea's external position remains resilient amid global economic uncertainty