韩国央行-金融稳定报告（2025年6月）（英）_186页_6mb

Financial Stability Report Summary (2025.6)

Core Content

The Financial Stability Report by the Bank of Korea (BOK) is a biannual publication aimed at assessing the stability of Korea's financial system. It evaluates potential risks across various sectors and outlines policy responses to maintain financial resilience. The report is published in accordance with the Bank of Korea Act, which mandates the submission of such reports to the National Assembly.

Main Points

1. Financial Stability Overview

• Overall Assessment: Korea's financial system remains broadly stable, supported by strong resilience in financial institutions and favorable external payment capacity.
• Market Volatility: Increased volatility in financial and foreign exchange markets is attributed to global trade conflicts, economic slowdowns, and geopolitical risks.
• Key Indicators:
  • Financial Stress Index (FSI): At 20.7 in May 2025, indicating a "warning" stage.
  • Financial Vulnerability Index (FVI): At 30.2 in Q1 2025, slightly above the previous quarter but still below its long-term average of 34.0.
• Resilience: Financial institutions show satisfactory resilience, with capital adequacy ratios remaining above regulatory standards.

2. Stability by Sector

Household and Corporate Credit

• Household Loans: Growth accelerated in April 2025, driven by increased housing transactions in Seoul. Delinquency rates rose, especially for regional banks and non-bank financial institutions.
• Corporate Loans: Growth remained subdued due to tighter lending standards. Delinquency rates were high among SMEs and self-employed individuals.
• Credit Leverage: Continued decline in private credit leverage, measured as the ratio of private credit to nominal GDP.

Financial and Asset Markets

• Stock Markets: Highly volatile due to global uncertainties, but recent trends show upward movement.
• Bond Markets: Corporate bond credit spreads remained stable within long-term averages.
• Real Estate Markets: Prices rose sharply in Seoul, while non-Seoul areas saw declines. Regional divergence is a concern.
• Other Asset Markets: No significant mention of other markets, but increased housing prices are noted as a risk factor.

Financial Institutions

• Banks: Maintained profitability, but asset quality declined moderately.
• Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs): Experienced declining profitability and deteriorating asset quality, with rising sub-standard-or-below loan ratios.
• Interconnectedness: Increased mutual transactions between banks and NBFIs, especially in foreign exchange derivatives and investment funds.

External Sector

• Exchange Rate Volatility: USD/KRW exchange rate was volatile, initially rising then falling due to US tariff policy shifts.
• Foreign Currency Funding: Generally stable, with favorable funding conditions.
• External Payment Capacity: Assessed as sound, with declining external debt to nominal GDP and short-term external debt.

3. Key Financial Stability Risks

• Household Borrowers: Vulnerable due to increased debt burdens and rising housing prices in Seoul.
• Corporate Credit Risk: Heightened due to economic slowdown, trade conflicts, and geopolitical risks. Construction and real estate sectors are particularly affected.
• Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs):
  • Credit Risk: Rising due to real estate project finance (PF) risks and exposure to vulnerable sectors.
  • Liquidity Risk: Increased due to rising short-term liabilities and concerns over asset quality.
  • Market Risk: Elevated, especially for insurance and securities companies due to increased securities investments.
• Housing Policy Finance: While improving residential welfare, the expansion of such loans may contribute to financial imbalances and increased household debt.

4. Policy Responses

• Macroprudential Policies:
  • Strengthened household debt regulations, especially focusing on borrowers' repayment capacity.
  • Implemented the third phase of DSR rules starting July 1, 2025.
  • Maintained the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) at 1.0% since May 2024.
• Regulatory Adjustments:
  • Normalization of temporary financial easing measures introduced in 2020.
  • Raising deposit insurance limit (effective Sept. 1, 2025).
  • Strengthening prudential regulations for land trusts (planned for July 1, 2025).
• Monitoring and Coordination:
  • Continuous monitoring of domestic and global risk factors.
  • Proactive and consistent macroprudential policy.
  • Coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies.
• Stablecoins and Cyber Risk:
  • Ongoing efforts to manage risks related to stablecoins and cyber threats to financial stability.

5. Policy Recommendations

• Monitor Financial Imbalances: Especially household debt and asset price growth.
• Tailored Policy Responses: Differentiated strategies for industries and firms based on their unique characteristics and vulnerabilities.
• Strengthen Lending Support: For vulnerable groups and genuine homebuyers while ensuring appropriate levels of housing policy finance.
• Improve Income Conditions: To support financial stability and economic recovery.
• Collaboration with Authorities: Continue to work with government and other policy makers to address emerging risks, particularly from new technologies and cyber threats.

6. Future Directions

• Enhance Housing Policy Finance: Gradually expand DSR applications to housing policy loans to ensure balanced debt management.
• Improve Project Finance (PF) System: To support housing supply and reduce risks.
• Stablecoin and Cyber Risk Management: Proactive measures to address the potential impact of emerging technologies on financial stability.

7. Conclusion

Despite overall stability, the Korean financial system faces underlying risks due to rising household and corporate credit risks, increased market volatility, and potential financial imbalances. The BOK continues to implement macroprudential and monetary policies in coordination with the government to manage these risks effectively. A balanced approach to housing policy finance and enhanced monitoring of NBFIs and external conditions are essential for maintaining long-term financial stability.