韩国央行-金融稳定报告（2024年6月）（英）-155页

Financial Stability Report Summary

Bank of Korea, June 2024

Executive Summary

Korea's financial system remains stable, supported by strong resilience of institutions amid economic recovery. However, risks persist, including household and corporate debt accumulation, real estate market volatility, and potential vulnerabilities from the ongoing financial restructuring.

Key Findings

1. Financial Stability Situation by Sector

• Credit Markets:
  • Household credit growth slowed, but household loans increased by 1.6%. Corporate credit growth declined due to economic challenges.
  • Real estate-related loans surged, driven by high interest rates and policy support, raising macro leverage ratios.
• Asset Markets:
  • Bond spreads narrowed, stock prices stabilized, while housing prices mixed between regions of Seoul and non-Seoul metropolitan areas.
• Financial Institutions:
  • Banks maintained strong capital ratios (17.6% for BIS total capital ratio), but profitability declined due to loan loss expenses.
  • Non-bank deposit-taking institutions (e.g., mutual savings banks) faced deteriorating asset quality, with rising delinquency rates.
• Capital Flows:
  • Foreign portfolio investment increased, while domestic capital flows eased after recent policy adjustments.

2. Resilience of Financial System

• Financial Institutions: Despite increased loan losses, capital and liquidity ratios remained above supervisory standards. Mutual cooperatives showed vulnerability, with lower resilience compared to banks and securities companies.
• External Payment Capacity: Net external assets increased to USD 384.6 billion in 2024. Short-term external debt remained manageable, and official foreign reserves provided sufficient coverage.
• Financial Market Infrastructures: Payment systems (BOK-Wire+) operated smoothly with minor settling delays, reflecting stable liquidity management.

3. Analysis of Financial Stability Issues

• Macro Leverage: Korea’s private credit (207.4% of GDP) outpaces advanced economies, but its growth slowed in 2023. High leverage in corporate and household sectors necessitates continued monitoring and policy adjustments.
• Stress Test Reassessment: Using microdata, the reestablished stress test model (SAMP 2.0) shows stronger resilience institution-wide but highlights vulnerability in specific sectors (e.g., mutual credit cooperatives).

4. Policy Recommendations

• Strengthen soft landing measures for the real estate sector to prevent defaults and stabilize debt-to-income ratios.
• Enhance monitoring of non-performing loans and improve debt restructuring mechanisms, particularly for vulnerable borrowers.
• Continuously improve liquidity management and capital adequacy across institutions to address systemic risks.

Conclusion

Korea's financial stability remains robust despite external and domestic risks like high leverage and real estate volatility. Proactive policy measures and robust financial supervision are crucial for mitigating emerging risks and ensuring long-term stability.