2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_Third_Review_Under_the_Stand_43页_801kb

Summary of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Applicability of a Performance Criterion

Core Content

This document outlines the third review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and the request for a waiver of applicability of a performance criterion (PC) related to domestic arrears. It includes the staff report and a press release, detailing the country's economic performance, policy discussions, and future outlook.

Main Points

1. Stand-By Arrangement Overview

• The SBA was approved by the IMF Board on September 26, 2012, with an access of SDR 338.2 million (200% of quota).
• As of May 6, 2013, the second review was completed, and SDR 135.28 million (80% of quota) had been disbursed.
• The third review was completed on June 13, 2013, and SDR 33.82 million (20% of quota) would be available upon approval.

2. Program Performance

• All end-March 2013 performance criteria on fiscal balances were met.
• The general government deficit target was missed due to higher-than-expected capital spending, mainly by the Federation and Republika Srpska (RS) highway and road funds.
• The authorities requested a waiver of applicability for the end-March PC on domestic arrears due to delays in reporting by lower levels of government and extra-budgetary funds.
• Structural reforms were largely implemented, with only minor delays in some cases.

3. Economic Outlook and Risks

• Economic activity appears to be bottoming out, with a modest growth projection of 0.5% for 2013.
• Inflation declined to 0.6% in April 2013, but unemployment remained high at over 28%.
• Downside risks remain significant, including a difficult political environment and potential re-intensification of the euro area crisis.
• Economic growth is expected to pick up in line with a gradual European recovery, driven by exports and remittances.

4. Key Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• Continued fiscal consolidation is necessary, with the general government deficit expected to reduce to around 2% of GDP in 2013 from 2.6% in 2012.
• Revenue collection needs improvement, especially in indirect taxes, due to VAT refunds and tax arrears.
• The authorities are focusing on enhancing the Indirect Tax Authority's risk management and fraud detection, and increasing excise rates on certain tobacco products.
• A one-off dividend payment from TRANSCO is expected to support fiscal targets.

B. Fiscal Structural Reforms

• Reforms in entitlement programs and public financial management are ongoing to support fiscal consolidation.
• The Federation has started implementing the new law on privileged pensions for war veterans, which includes requalification of beneficiaries and reduction of benefit levels.
• Pension reform is crucial for long-term sustainability, with the Federation planning to submit a reform strategy and action plan to parliament in July 2013.
• The RS has initiated measures to reduce healthcare costs, including wage cuts for health fund staff, lower prescription prices, and e-prescription expansion.
• A new budget law is being prepared to improve coordination, budget monitoring, and fiscal rules across all levels of government.

C. Financial Sector Stability

• The banking system remains profitable and adequately capitalized, but non-performing loans (NPLs) have increased to around 14%.
• The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) and Banking Agencies have identified systemically important banks and are conducting stress tests.
• Legal and regulatory changes are being considered to align with EU standards, including the treatment of confidential information and the establishment of a cross-border forum.
• A comprehensive strategy for NPL resolution is being developed, including new legislation for asset management companies and amendments to corporate insolvency laws to improve restructuring and bankruptcy processes.

D. Private Sector Development

• Enhancing the private sector is essential for job creation and reducing unemployment.
• Efforts include simplifying business registration, streamlining tax and contribution payment procedures, and revamping labor laws to improve flexibility and competitiveness.
• A one-stop shop for business registration in the RS is expected to be operational by late 2013.
• The Federation is preparing a new law on companies to simplify registration and improve governance.

E. Program Issues

• The authorities are committed to their economic policies for 2013.
• A waiver of the end-March performance criterion on domestic arrears is requested due to data reporting delays.
• The new fiscal framework for 2014-16 aims for continued fiscal consolidation and sets indicative parameters for the entities' budgets.

Key Information

• Performance Criteria: All fiscal performance criteria were met except for the domestic arrears criterion, which the authorities requested a waiver for.
• Structural Reforms: Progress has been made on pension, healthcare, and public financial management reforms.
• Financial Sector: NPLs are a concern, and measures are being taken to address them through legal and regulatory changes.
• Private Sector: The authorities are focusing on simplifying business processes and improving labor market flexibility.
• IMF Staff Recommendations: The staff recommends completion of the third review and supports the waiver request.

Conclusion

The staff report concludes that BiH has made good progress under the SBA, despite ongoing political challenges. The request for a waiver of the end-March performance criterion is supported due to data reporting delays. Continued implementation of structural reforms and fiscal discipline are essential for long-term stability and growth.