2024-11-24-Kroll-2024年印度工业倍数报告——第25版（英）_85页_4mb

Industry Multiples in India Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of industry multiples for key sectors in India as of September 30, 2024, using data from the S&P BSE LargeCap, S&P BSE MidCap, and S&P BSE SmallCap indexes. It includes information on EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, P/E, and P/B multiples across various industries, along with market trends and growth projections.

Global and Regional Growth Expectations

• Global Growth (IMF): Expected to be 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025.
• United States: Revised down to 2.6% in 2024 and expected to slow to 1.9% in 2025.
• Euro Area: Expected to grow at 0.9% in 2024, driven by services and net exports.
• China: Revised upward to 5% in 2024 due to rebound in private consumption and exports.
• Global Inflation (IMF): Expected to fall from 6.8% in CY2023 to 5.9% in CY2024. Advanced economies are projected to have 2.7% inflation, while developing economies are expected to have 8.2%, both above pre-pandemic levels.

India Economic Outlook

• Economic Growth: Increased from 7.0% in FY2022-23 to 8.2% in FY2023-24, and projected to grow at 7.0% in FY2025.
• Demand Side: Driven by significant investment in public infrastructure and real estate.
• Supply Side: Supported by a rebound in the manufacturing sector and a buoyant construction industry.
• Headline Inflation: Expected to decline from 5.4% in FY2023-24 to 4.5% in FY2024-25.
• Fiscal Deficit: Projected to narrow from 5.6% of GDP in FY2023-24 to 4.9% in FY2024-25, and further to 4.5% by FY2025-26.

Stock Market Performance

• FTSE 100: Rose by 0.9% between Q2 and Q3 CY24.
• DAX: Increased by 6.0%.
• EURO STOXX 50: Rose by 2.2%.
• S&P 500: Rose by 5.5%.
• MSCI World Index: Rose by 6.0%.
• Indian Stock Indexes: BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 increased by 6.7% and 7.5% respectively from June to September 2024. They declined by approximately 1.8% and 1.5% since the current quarter's high.

Industry-Specific Insights

Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology

• Market capitalization increased by 21.7% from Q2 to Q3 CY24.
• Expected to reach USD 130 billion by 2030, according to the Economic Survey 2023-2024.
• Focus on enhancing biopharmaceutical manufacturing capacity to sustain export growth.
• Indian government promoting domestic raw material production through the PLI scheme to reduce supply chain risk linked to China.

Textile, Apparel and Luxury Goods

• Market capitalization increased by 6.3% from Q2 to Q3 CY24.
• Industry currently valued at USD 22 billion and expected to expand to USD 350 billion by 2030, adding 35 million jobs.
• Political instability in Bangladesh presents an opportunity for Indian textile companies.
• Industry experts predict a 10-11% shift of Bangladesh's export orders to India will result in an additional USD 300-400 million monthly revenue.

Electric and Gas Utilities

• Market capitalization increased by 9.4% from Q2 to Q3 CY24.
• Energy usage in September 2024 was 141.3 billion units, with minimal variation from the previous year.
• Steady monsoon boosted hydro and wind power generation, leading to price reductions.
• Power demand is expected to grow at 7% CAGR over the next 10 years due to urbanization, economic growth, and new demand generators like EVs, data centers, and electrification.
• India committed to achieving 500GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, particularly in wind and solar power.

Summary: Multiples by Sector

Median EV/EBITDA Multiples by Sector

Key Insights

• The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector showed significant growth in market capitalization, with a 21.7% increase from Q2 to Q3 CY24.
• The textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry also saw a 6.3% increase in market capitalization, with a strong outlook due to opportunities from Bangladesh's political instability.
• The electric and gas utilities sector experienced a 9.4% increase in market capitalization, driven by improved power generation and a commitment to renewable energy growth.
• Overall, the Indian stock market showed positive performance in the third quarter of 2024, with the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 rising by 6.7% and 7.5%, respectively.
• The report highlights the importance of understanding sector-specific multiples for valuation and investment decisions, with data sourced from Capital IQ, Bloomberg, and Kroll analysis.