KROLL-2025年印度工业倍数报告——第26版（英）-2025.1_85页_1mb

KROLL Industry: Multiples in India Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of trading multiples for various key industries in India as of December 31, 2024, using constituents of the S&P BSE indices. It includes EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, P/E, and P/B multiples for each sector, along with insights into market performance and economic indicators.

Main Economic Outlook

• Global Growth: Expected to remain broadly flat, decreasing from 3.3% in 2023 to 3.1% by 2029. Growth for 2024 and 2025 is projected at 3.2%.
• United States: Projected growth for 2024 is 2.8%, up from the July forecast. Growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025 due to fiscal tightening and a cooling labor market.
• Euro Area: GDP growth is expected to rise to 0.8% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, supported by increased exports and domestic demand.
• Emerging Asia: Growth is expected to decline from 5.7% in 2023 to 5% by 2025, primarily due to slowdowns in India and China.
• Inflation: Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. Advanced economies will return to their inflation targets faster than emerging markets.
• India's GDP: Expected to grow by 6.6% in FY 2025 and 6.5% in FY 2026. Q2 2024 saw a 6.7% year-over-year expansion, driven by strong household consumption, investment, and manufacturing.
• Food Price Volatility: Headline inflation in India surged to 6.2% in October 2024 due to a spike in vegetable prices, exceeding the RBI's tolerance band of 4% (+/- 2%).

Key Industry Performances

Automobiles

• Market Capitalization: Declined by 18% from Q3 CY24 to Q4 CY24.
• Nifty Auto Index: Declined by 15.5% in Q4 2024.
• Sector Performance: Experienced sluggish demand in the latter half of 2024, with a 2% sales drop in December 2024 following a 14% decline in November.

Electric and Gas Utilities

• Market Capitalization: Declined by 19% from Q3 CY24 to Q4 CY24.
• Power Demand: Expected to grow at a CAGR of over 7%, up from the previous estimate of 5%.
• Natural Gas Consumption: Fell to 9% in the last month, the lowest of the year.
• Gas-Based Power Plants: Capacity utilization dropped to 7.9% in November, the lowest in over 18 months.

Chemicals

• Market Capitalization: Declined by 8% from Q3 CY24 to Q4 CY24.
• Specialty Chemicals: Facing challenges that may dampen Q2 FY25 earnings, including trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
• Sales Growth: Estimated at 10% year-on-year, but sequential sales are projected to decline by 2%.
• Factors Affecting Sector: Container shortages and extended shipping routes due to ongoing conflicts.

Banks

• Market Capitalization: Declined by 9% from Q3 CY24 to Q4 CY24.
• Nifty Bank Index: Declined by nearly 4% in Q4 2024.
• CASA Ratio: Declining as customers shift savings to higher-return investments like mutual funds, gold, and equity.
• Credit Deposit Ratio: Remains high at 79.6%, indicating potential stress on funding availability.
• Retail Deposits: Challenges in attracting, leading to reliance on bulk deposits which may negatively impact net interest margins.

Summary of Multiples by Sector

Median EV/EBITDA Multiples by Sector

• Apparel: Median 18.4x
• Application Software: Median 33.7x
• Auto Parts and Equipment: Median 14.5x
• Automobile Manufacturers: Median 12.5x
• Chemicals: Median 20.2x
• Construction and Engineering: Median 14.7x
• Construction Material: Median 17.6x
• Electric and Gas Utilities: Median 12.2x
• Energy: Median 6.5x
• Health Care Facilities and Services: Median 30.6x
• Household and Personal Products: Median 20.8x
• Household Appliances: Median 33.2x
• Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers: Median 12.9x
• Industrial Machinery: Median 32.1x
• Internet Services and Infrastructure: Median 21.4x
• Media: Median 7.1x
• Metals and Mining: Median 12.2x
• Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology: Median 24.6x
• Real Estate: Median 28.5x
• Banks: Median 8.2x
• Capital Markets: Median 25.4x
• Consumer Finance: Median 18.0x
• Diversified Financial Services: Median 18.4x

Key Observations

• The Indian stock indices (BSE Sensex and Nifty 50) declined significantly from September to December 2024, with drops of 7.3% and 8.4% respectively.
• The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 fell by 0.8%, while DAX and EURO STOXX 50 increased by 3% and 2.1% respectively.
• The S&P 500 rose by 2.1%, and the Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index fell by 0.4%.
• The report highlights the importance of understanding outlier criteria and the need for a minimum of five company participants to calculate sector multiples.