2017年-ECB欧洲央行_ECB_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_September_2017_12页_144kb

Summary of ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area (September 2017)

Core Content

The European Central Bank (ECB) projected continued economic expansion in the euro area over the projection horizon, with real GDP growth remaining above potential. The growth trajectory is expected to moderate slightly from the strong post-crisis peak of 2.2% in 2017, averaging around 1.8% in 2018 and 2019. The recovery is supported by accommodative monetary policy, progress in deleveraging, and improving labor market conditions. Exports are expected to benefit from a global economic recovery, although the recent appreciation of the euro may reduce export competitiveness.

Inflation is projected to follow a V-shaped pattern, declining in the short term due to base effects and energy prices, before gradually rising to 1.5% in 2019. Underlying inflation is expected to increase as economic slack is absorbed. The ECB emphasized that the recent euro appreciation may have dampened headline inflation but is expected to be partially offset by stronger domestic demand.

Main Views

• Growth Outlook:

  • Real GDP growth is expected to average around 1.8% in 2018 and 2019, slightly below the 2017 peak of 2.2%.
  • Domestic demand will continue to be a key driver of growth, supported by low interest rates, improving labor markets, and favorable financing conditions.
  • Business and consumer sentiment remain strong, contributing to a sustained economic expansion.
  • The housing market recovery is expected to continue, with investment supported by favorable financing and improved labor conditions.
  • Business investment is projected to recover due to improved profit margins, lower deleveraging needs, and modernization of the capital stock.

• Inflation Outlook:

  • Headline HICP inflation is expected to average 1.5% in 2017, decrease to 1.2% in 2018, and rise again to 1.5% in 2019.
  • The decline in 2018 is mainly due to base effects from energy prices, which are expected to rebound in 2019.
  • Underlying inflation is projected to rise gradually as economic slack is absorbed.
  • The appreciation of the euro has dampened inflationary pressures, but this effect is expected to be partially offset by stronger domestic demand and wage growth.

• Labor Market:

  • The unemployment rate is expected to decline further, reaching 8.1% in 2019.
  • Employment growth is projected to remain robust, though it may slow slightly as temporary factors fade.
  • Labor productivity is expected to improve gradually as the economy approaches full capacity.
  • Compensation per employee is projected to increase from 1.5% in 2017 to 2.3% in 2019, reflecting improved labor market conditions and reduced wage restraint.

Key Information

• Technical Assumptions:

  • The effective exchange rate of the euro is projected to appreciate by 2.1% in 2017 and 4.4% over 2018–2019.
  • Short-term interest rates (three-month EURIBOR) are expected to average -0.3% in 2017 and 2018, and -0.1% in 2019.
  • Ten-year government bond yields are projected to rise gradually from 1.1% in 2017 to 1.6% in 2019.
  • Oil prices are expected to increase from USD 44.0 in 2016 to USD 53.1 in 2019.
  • Non-energy commodity prices are expected to rise in 2017 and then moderate.

• Fiscal Outlook:

  • The fiscal stance is projected to remain broadly neutral over the projection horizon.
  • Government deficits and debt ratios are expected to decline due to improved primary balances and lower interest payments.
  • The structural budget balance is projected to improve, reflecting underlying fiscal health.

• Trade and Competitiveness:

  • Euro area exports are expected to grow at a robust pace, though the appreciation of the euro may reduce export competitiveness.
  • Import prices are projected to rise due to global inflationary pressures, though the euro appreciation may limit the upward impact.
  • Net trade is expected to contribute less to growth as the euro appreciation reduces export market shares.

• Sensitivity Analysis:

  • Projections are sensitive to assumptions about interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.
  • The ECB emphasized the importance of these technical assumptions in shaping the outlook for the euro area economy.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The ECB's September 2017 projections highlight a sustained economic expansion in the euro area, supported by accommodative monetary policy, improved labor markets, and favorable external conditions. While inflation is expected to decline temporarily due to base effects and the euro's appreciation, it will gradually recover as underlying inflationary pressures build. The fiscal outlook remains broadly neutral, with a downward trend in deficits and debt ratios. The projections also emphasize the importance of technical assumptions in shaping the macroeconomic outlook.