2008年-ECB欧洲央行_ECB_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_3页_173kb

ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area (2008-2009)

Core Content Overview

The ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, based on information up to 22 August 2008, provide estimates for key economic indicators such as real GDP growth and inflation over the years 2008 and 2009. These projections are made using technical assumptions and are presented in the form of probability ranges, reflecting the uncertainty in economic outlook.

Key Economic Projections

Real GDP Growth

• 2007: 2.6%
• 2008: 1.1% to 1.7%
• 2009: 0.6% to 1.8%

Real GDP growth is expected to decline in 2008 after two years of growth above potential, primarily due to weaker foreign demand, a strong euro exchange rate, and continued high commodity prices. In 2009, a gradual recovery in GDP growth is anticipated, supported by lower commodity price increases and an improved external environment.

HICP Inflation

• 2007: 2.1%
• 2008: 3.4% to 3.6%
• 2009: 2.3% to 2.9%

HICP inflation increased to 4.0% in July 2008 and moderated to 3.8% in August 2008. It is projected to decelerate slowly in 2008, with the average rate of increase between 3.4% and 3.6%. In 2009, inflation is expected to fall to between 2.3% and 2.9%, driven by a moderation in wage growth and a recovery in productivity.

Technical Assumptions

Interest Rates

• Short-term interest rates (three-month EURIBOR): 4.8% in 2008, 4.5% in 2009
• Euro area ten-year nominal government bond yields: 4.5% in 2008, 4.6% in 2009
• The new method uses EURIBOR futures rates to reflect market expectations, replacing the previous method based on implied forward rates.

Commodity Prices

• Oil prices: USD 115.1 per barrel in 2008, USD 120.8 in 2009
• Food prices: Increase by 42.8% in 2008, 6.9% in 2009
• Other commodities (non-energy and non-food): Increase by 10.6% in 2008, decrease by 1.8% in 2009

Exchange Rates

• EUR/USD exchange rate: 1.53 in 2008, 1.52 in 2009
• Effective exchange rate of the euro: 6.1% higher in 2008 than in 2007, 0.2% lower in 2009 than in 2008

Fiscal Policy Assumptions

• Based on national budget plans available as of 21 August 2008
• Include all policy measures already approved by parliament or likely to pass the legislative process

International Environment

• Global economic growth is expected to weaken in the second half of 2008, due to the lagged impact of high commodity prices and weak US growth
• Emerging markets are projected to maintain strong growth due to robust domestic demand
• From early 2009, both global growth and euro area foreign demand are expected to recover gradually
• World real GDP growth outside the euro area is projected to slow from 5.1% in 2007 to 4.1% in 2008 and 3.7% in 2009
• Euro area's export markets are expected to grow at 5.2% in 2008, down from 6.4% in 2007, and recover to 5.7% in 2009

Comparison with June 2008 Projections

The updated projections show a downward adjustment in real GDP growth and an upward shift in HICP inflation ranges, reflecting the deteriorating economic conditions and higher commodity prices compared to the June 2008 outlook.

Additional Notes

• The projections use model-based 75% probability intervals for each variable and horizon.
• The methodology is consistent with Eurosystem staff projections and is detailed in the ECB's publication "A guide to Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projection exercises".
• Slovakia is included in the euro area composition for 2009 projections, which were based on data from 2008.