2018年-ECB欧洲央行_ECB_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_September_2018_11页_243kb

ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area (September 2018)

Core Content

The ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area in September 2018 outline the trajectory of economic growth, inflation, employment, and fiscal policy over the next few years. The report highlights that the economic expansion, which was very strong in 2017, slowed in the first half of 2018 due to weakening global trade and the euro's appreciation. However, the expansion is expected to continue at a pace slightly above potential, driven by accommodative monetary policy, improving labor market conditions, and stronger balance sheets.

Main Points

• Real GDP Growth:

  • Projected to remain above potential growth over the projection horizon.
  • Expected to moderate gradually from 2.0% in 2018 to 1.7% in 2020.
  • The slowdown is mainly due to a gradual weakening of trade stimulus and labor supply shortages.
  • In 2018, real GDP growth is projected to be 2.0%, down from 2.5% in the first half of the year.

• Unemployment Rate:

  • Expected to decline to 7.4% by 2020.
  • In the second quarter of 2018, it fell to 8.3%, the lowest since late 2008.

• Inflation:

  • HICP inflation is expected to average 1.7% annually over the projection horizon, with some quarterly volatility.
  • Energy inflation is projected to decline, while underlying inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected to rise gradually from 1.1% in 2018 to 1.8% in 2020.
  • The decline in energy inflation is offset by rising underlying inflation due to supply constraints and wage growth.

• Wage and Productivity:

  • Wage growth is expected to increase over the projection horizon, with compensation per employee rising to 2.7% in 2020.
  • Unit labor costs are projected to rise in line with wage growth, as productivity growth remains modest.
  • Labor productivity is expected to rebound in 2019 and 2020, gradually converging to a pre-crisis average of 1.0%.

• Fiscal Outlook:

  • The fiscal stance is expected to be broadly neutral in 2018, mildly expansionary in 2019, and broadly neutral again in 2020.
  • Government consumption is projected to increase, while government savings are expected to improve due to lower interest payments and improved cyclical conditions.
  • General government gross debt is projected to decline from 86.6% of GDP in 2017 to 80.6% in 2020.

Key Information

• Employment:

  • Employment growth is expected to slow, especially in 2019 and 2020, due to increasing labor supply shortages.
  • The labor force is expected to grow moderately, with net immigration and integration of refugees playing a key role.

• Consumer and Business Spending:

  • Private consumption is projected to remain resilient, supported by favorable lending conditions and rising household net worth.
  • Residential investment is expected to continue expanding, though at a slower pace, due to capacity constraints and demographic trends.
  • Business investment is expected to recover gradually, supported by strong profits and high capacity utilization, but at a declining pace.

• Trade:

  • Euro area exports are expected to benefit from global economic expansion and rising foreign demand.
  • Net trade is projected to contribute broadly neutrally to economic growth, following a very positive contribution in 2017.
  • Global trade growth is expected to moderate, with rising trade tariffs and weaker activity in some regions affecting the outlook.

• Technical Assumptions:

  • Interest rates are expected to remain low, with the three-month EURIBOR averaging -0.3% in 2018, -0.2% in 2019, and 0.0% in 2020.
  • Oil prices are projected to rise in 2018 and 2019, then decline slightly in 2020.
  • The euro's effective exchange rate is expected to strengthen by 1.5% compared to the June 2018 projections.

Summary Table

International Environment

• Global economic growth is expected to moderate gradually, with advanced economies benefiting from accommodative monetary policies and fiscal stimulus, while emerging markets face tighter financial conditions.
• Global trade growth is projected to slow, with concerns over trade protectionism affecting confidence and investment.
• Euro area foreign demand is expected to grow at 4.1% in 2018 and slow to 3.6% by 2020, reflecting weaker global activity and higher trade tariffs.

Conclusion

The ECB staff projections suggest a continued expansion of the euro area economy, albeit at a slower pace than in 2017. The main drivers of growth include accommodative monetary policy, improving labor markets, and stronger domestic demand. Inflation is expected to remain stable, with energy prices declining and underlying inflation rising. Fiscal policy is projected to be broadly neutral in 2018 and 2020, with a mild expansion in 2019. The report also highlights the importance of external factors, such as global trade and commodity prices, in shaping the euro area's economic outlook.