2016年-ECB欧洲央行_ECB_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_September_2016_12页_145kb

September 2016 ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections Summary

Core Content

The ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area for 2016–2018 highlight a continued economic recovery, albeit at a slower pace than previously anticipated. The main drivers of growth include accommodative monetary policy, improving labor market conditions, and progress in deleveraging. However, the UK's Brexit decision has introduced downward pressures on foreign demand, particularly through weaker import demand, which has dampened export growth. Despite these challenges, the euro area's growth outlook remains largely intact due to resilience in sentiment and uncertainty indicators.

Main Points

• Growth Outlook:

  • Real GDP growth is expected to be 1.7% in 2016, 1.6% in 2017, and 1.6% in 2018.
  • Domestic demand is projected to be the main driver of growth, supported by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus.
  • Export growth is expected to be 2.6% in 2016, 3.7% in 2017, and 4.1% in 2018, but will remain below import growth, leading to a negative net trade contribution.

• Inflation Outlook:

  • HICP inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2016, 1.2% in 2017, and 1.6% in 2018.
  • The sharp drop in oil prices in the past has contributed to negative energy inflation, which is expected to fade, leading to a gradual increase in headline inflation.
  • HICP excluding energy and food is projected to rise to 0.9% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017, and 1.5% in 2018.

• Labour Market:

  • The negative output gap is expected to narrow gradually, with the unemployment rate declining from 10.9% in 2016 to 9.6% in 2018.
  • Labour productivity is projected to increase from 0.4% in 2016 to 0.9% in 2018.
  • Compensation per employee is expected to rise from 1.2% in 2016 to 2.2% in 2018.

• Fiscal Outlook:

  • The fiscal stance is projected to be expansionary in 2016, turning neutral in 2017 and 2018.
  • General government budget balance is expected to improve from -2.1% of GDP in 2016 to -1.5% in 2018.
  • The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline, supported by economic growth and low interest rates.

Key Information

• Brexit Impact:

  • The UK referendum has led to a substantial downward revision in foreign demand, especially from the UK, with a cumulative effect of 1.3 percentage points on euro area growth.
  • The euro area is expected to experience lower export growth due to reduced foreign demand, although the weaker effective exchange rate of the euro will partially offset this.
  • The adverse effects of Brexit are expected to be mitigated by the ECB's accommodative monetary policy, low interest rates, and a depreciation of the euro against other major currencies.

• Technical Assumptions:

  • Three-month EURIBOR is projected to be -0.3% in 2016, -0.4% in 2017 and 2018.
  • Ten-year government bond yields are expected to fall to 0.7% in 2016, 0.6% in 2017, and 0.8% in 2018.
  • Oil prices are expected to fall to USD 42.8 in 2016, rising to USD 50.6 in 2018.
  • Non-energy commodity prices are projected to fall in 2016 and rise in 2017 and 2018.
  • The USD/EUR exchange rate is expected to remain stable at 1.11 over the projection horizon.

• Downside and Upside Risks:

  • Downside risks include further deterioration in UK economic activity, prolonged uncertainty, and adverse effects on trade and investment.
  • Upside risks are associated with re-localisation of financial services and FDI flows from the UK to other euro area countries.

• Residential and Business Investment:

  • Residential investment is expected to recover modestly, supported by rising nominal disposable income and low mortgage rates.
  • Business investment is projected to continue its recovery, driven by improved confidence, capacity utilisation, and profit margins, although rigidities in product and labor markets may constrain growth.

• Global Context:

  • Global economic activity is expected to strengthen gradually, with growth in non-euro area real GDP projected at 3.0% in 2016, 3.5% in 2017, and 3.7% in 2018.
  • Global trade is expected to grow at 0.9% in 2016, 2.8% in 2017, and 3.7% in 2018, with a medium-term elasticity of 1 to global growth, below pre-crisis levels.
  • Euro area foreign demand is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2018.

Summary of Growth Drivers and Constraints

Drivers of Growth:

• Accommodative monetary policy (ECB).
• Improving labor market conditions.
• Progress in deleveraging across sectors.
• Supportive fiscal policy in 2016.
• Gradual global recovery.
• Lower oil prices and weaker effective exchange rate of the euro.

Constraints on Growth:

• Downward revision in foreign demand, especially from the UK.
• Weaker UK economic outlook and uncertainty related to Brexit negotiations.
• High unemployment and household debt in some countries.
• Adverse demographic developments.
• Slower potential output growth due to subdued investment.

Summary of Inflation Drivers and Constraints

Drivers of Inflation:

• Fading energy price deflation.
• Improving labor market conditions and rising wage growth.
• Stronger corporate price-setting power and profit margins.
• Rising global inflationary pressures.

Constraints on Inflation:

• Low nominal disposable income growth in the early part of the projection horizon.
• Negative base effects from the past oil price fall.
• Continued adjustment processes to regain price competitiveness.

Summary of Fiscal Outlook

• Expansionary fiscal stance in 2016, turning neutral in 2017 and 2018.
• General government budget balance is expected to improve from -2.1% of GDP in 2016 to -1.5% in 2018.
• Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline over the projection horizon due to economic growth and low interest rates.
• The structural budget balance is expected to remain negative, but improve from -1.9% in 2016 to -1.6% in 2018.