2013年-ECB欧洲央行_ECB_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_5页_292kb

ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area (March 2013)

Core Content Overview

The ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, based on information up to 22 February 2013, provide an outlook on key economic indicators such as real GDP growth and inflation for 2013 and 2014. The projections are presented as ranges to account for uncertainty, reflecting the differences between actual outcomes and previous projections over time.

Main Macroeconomic Projections

• Real GDP Growth:

  • 2013: Expected to range between -0.9% and -0.1%, with a negative output gap persisting throughout the projection horizon.
  • 2014: Projected to range between 0.0% and 2.0%, indicating a gradual recovery.

• Inflation (HICP):

  • 2013: Expected to range between 1.2% and 2.0%, with a notable decline in energy and food prices due to base effects and assumed weakening commodity prices.
  • 2014: Projected to range between 0.6% and 2.0%, with a marginal easing in inflation excluding food and energy, and a slight increase in overall inflation due to fiscal consolidation measures.

Technical Assumptions

• Interest Rates:

  • Short-term interest rates (three-month EURIBOR) are projected to average 0.3% in 2013 and 0.5% in 2014.
  • Euro area ten-year nominal government bond yields are expected to average 3.2% in 2013 and 3.6% in 2014.
  • Composite bank lending rates are expected to bottom out in the first half of 2013 and rise gradually thereafter.

• Commodity Prices:

  • Brent crude oil: Assumed to average USD 114.1 in 2013 and USD 106.8 in 2014.
  • Non-energy commodities: Expected to increase by 1.2% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2014.

• Exchange Rates:

  • Bilateral exchange rates are assumed to remain unchanged at the average levels prevailing in the two-week period ending on 14 February 2013.
  • USD per EUR is expected to average 1.35 for both 2013 and 2014, up from USD 1.29 in 2012.
  • The effective exchange rate of the euro is projected to increase by 4.2% in 2013 and 0.1% in 2014.

• Fiscal Policy:

  • Substantial fiscal consolidation measures were implemented or expected in 2013, including tax increases and expenditure cuts.
  • For 2014, only very limited fiscal consolidation is assumed, as measures are likely to pass the legislative process.

International Environment Projections

• World Real GDP Growth (excluding the euro area):

  • Expected to rise gradually from 3.7% in 2012 to 3.8% in 2013 and further to 4.4% in 2014.
  • PMI surveys and improved financial market conditions support this pick-up.

• Euro Area Foreign Demand:

  • Projected to grow by 3.5% in 2013 and 6.3% in 2014, after 3.2% in 2012.
  • Net trade is expected to contribute positively to GDP growth, although less than in 2012.

Detailed Components of Real GDP Growth

• Private Consumption:

  • Fell in Q4 2012, likely due to a sharp decline in real disposable income.
  • Expected to decline further in the first half of 2013 and recover mildly in the second half.
  • In 2014, it is projected to gain momentum due to improved labour market conditions and reduced fiscal consolidation impact, but may be dampened by a rise in the saving ratio.

• Government Consumption:

  • Expected to decline in 2013 due to fiscal consolidation efforts.
  • Projected to increase modestly in 2014.

• Gross Fixed Capital Formation:

  • Declined in 2012 and is expected to weaken further in the first half of 2013.
  • Projected to pick up from the second half of 2013, supported by stronger demand and low interest rates.

• Exports and Imports:

  • Exports are expected to decline in 2013, but gain momentum in 2014.
  • Imports are projected to rebound in 2013, leading to a trade surplus.
  • Net trade is expected to be positive over the projection horizon.

Price and Cost Projections

• External Price Pressures:

  • Eased due to the appreciation of the euro.
  • The import deflator is expected to decline in 2013 and stabilize in 2014.

• Domestic Price Pressures:

  • Compensation per employee growth is expected to remain subdued due to weak labour market conditions.
  • Real compensation per employee is projected to increase gradually over the projection horizon.
  • Unit labour costs are expected to remain relatively high in 2013, but decline in 2014 as productivity growth picks up.

• Profit Margins:

  • Projected to fall further in 2013, following a stronger decline in 2012.
  • Expected to recover in 2014 due to lower unit labour cost growth and improving economic conditions.

• Fiscal Consolidation:

  • Expected to contribute significantly to HICP inflation in 2013 and 2014, even if less intense than in 2012.

Comparison with Other Forecasts

• December 2012 Projections:

  • The upper end of the real GDP growth range for 2013 was revised downward, reflecting the weak Q4 2012 performance.
  • The HICP inflation range for 2013 was narrowed, while the upper end for 2014 was slightly reduced due to the stronger euro.

• Other Institutions:

  • OECD: Projects GDP growth of -0.1% in 2013 and 1.3% in 2014; inflation of 1.6% in 2013 and 1.2% in 2014.
  • European Commission: Forecasts GDP growth of -0.3% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014; inflation of 1.8% in 2013 and 1.5% in 2014.
  • IMF: Projects GDP growth of -0.2% in 2013 and 1.0% in 2014; inflation of 1.6% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014.
  • Survey of Professional Forecasters and Consensus Economics Forecasts suggest similar ranges, with some differences in the upper bounds.

Summary of Key Points

• The euro area is expected to experience a modest recovery in 2014, but remains in a recession in 2013.
• Inflation is projected to decline in 2013 due to weak energy and food prices, but may rise again in 2014 due to fiscal consolidation.
• The euro's appreciation and weak domestic demand continue to weigh on growth, but external demand and accommodative monetary policy are expected to support a gradual recovery.
• ECB staff projections are not strictly comparable to other forecasts due to differences in timing, methodology, and working day adjustments.