菲沙研究所-加拿大气候政策及其对电网的影响（英）-2021.10-50页_1mb

Summary of Canadian Climate Policy and its Implications for Electricity Grids

Core Content

This document analyzes Canada's climate policy and its implications for the electricity grid, focusing on the feasibility and costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from power generation. It highlights the challenges of transitioning to renewable energy sources and the role of the electricity sector in achieving national emissions reduction targets.

Main Points

• Climate Targets: Canada has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% by 2030 from 2005 levels and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, these targets are considered insufficient in the context of global emissions, as developing countries are increasing their emissions more rapidly than developed nations.

• Electricity Grid Structure: Canada has ten separate provincial electricity grids, loosely interconnected through transmission interties. These grids are largely self-contained, with electricity generated from the lowest cost local resources to meet domestic demand. Provinces like British Columbia, Manitoba, and Quebec export surplus hydroelectricity.

• Energy Mix and Emissions:

  • Coal and oil (mainly diesel) account for a small portion of total energy consumption.
  • Natural gas has become a significant part of the energy mix, especially for electricity generation.
  • Hydroelectric power is the largest contributor to electricity generation, accounting for over 50% of total capacity and 58.6% of total generation.
  • Non-hydro renewable sources (wind, solar, biomass) contribute a smaller share, with wind and solar being intermittent and less reliable.

• Challenges of Renewable Energy Transition:

  • Eliminating coal and replacing it with renewables and gas can reduce emissions by 26-40%.
  • Using nuclear power can reduce emissions by more than 75%, but the associated costs are estimated at $1.9 billion annually.
  • The costs of transitioning to renewable energy sources are significant, with estimates suggesting that achieving a 7.4% reduction in national emissions through electricity sector changes could cost between $16.8 and $33.7 billion annually.

• Cost Considerations:

  • The study notes that the current estimates are conservative and do not include costs related to land use, transmission infrastructure, environmental and health impacts, and the life-cycle costs of renewable energy technologies.
  • Intermittent renewable sources require backup systems or storage, which are costly and energy-intensive.

• Kaya Identity and Emissions Trends:

  • The Kaya Identity illustrates that emissions are influenced by population, GDP, energy intensity, and carbon intensity.
  • Despite improvements in energy and carbon efficiency, emissions have continued to rise due to population growth and economic activity, particularly from the oilsands.

• Emissions Reduction Strategy:

  • To meet the 2030 emissions target, a significant shift in energy use is required, including electrification of heating, manufacturing, and transportation.
  • Eliminating fossil fuel generation from the grid is necessary, but this is not easily achievable without substantial investment and technological support.

Key Information

• Alberta as a Case Study: The Alberta electricity system is used to estimate the costs of reducing emissions through renewable and gas-based generation. It shows that 100% renewable energy is infeasible due to high costs and intermittency issues.

• Energy Intensity and Carbon Intensity:

  • Energy intensity has decreased over time but remains high relative to the global average.
  • Carbon intensity has also decreased, but not enough to meet the 2030 emissions targets without major changes in energy use.

• Renewable Energy Performance:

  • Wind and solar have low capacity factors, often below 40%.
  • Hydroelectricity is the most reliable and efficient renewable source, but its potential is limited by geography and existing infrastructure.

• Policy Implications:

  • The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act sets the framework for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
  • Policies promoting electric vehicles and reducing reliance on fossil fuels will increase electricity demand, requiring a significant expansion of renewable and low-emission generation.

Conclusion

The transition to a low-carbon electricity grid is a complex and costly endeavor. While renewable energy sources like wind and solar are essential, their intermittency and low capacity factors necessitate backup systems and storage solutions. Nuclear power offers a more substantial emissions reduction potential but is not currently considered feasible due to high costs and public opposition. The electricity sector is a key target for emissions reduction, but achieving the desired targets will require significant investment, technological innovation, and policy support. The costs associated with this transition are estimated to be in the range of 1–2% of Canada's GDP, with the full range potentially reaching up to $33.7 billion annually.