2021-09-30-菲沙研究所-加拿大气候政策及其对电网的影响（英）_50页_1mb

Summary of Canadian Climate Policy and its Implications for Electricity Grids

Core Content

This document analyzes the implications of Canadian climate policy on the country's electricity grids, focusing on the feasibility and cost of reducing CO₂ emissions from power generation. It provides an overview of Canada's current energy mix, emissions trends, and the challenges associated with transitioning to renewable energy sources.

Main Points

1. Climate Policy Targets

• Canada has committed to reducing CO₂ emissions by 40-45% by 2030 and achieving Net Zero by 2050, based on 2005 levels.
• These targets are ambitious but may not be sufficient to significantly impact global climate change due to the rapid rise in emissions from developing countries.

2. Structure of Canada's Electricity Grid

• Canada has ten separate provincial electricity grids, weakly interconnected through transmission interties.
• These interties help balance supply and demand but are limited in capacity, making electricity trade a small proportion of total generation.
• Provinces like British Columbia, Manitoba, and Quebec export surplus hydroelectricity, but the grid remains largely standalone and localised.

3. Energy Mix and Emissions Trends

• Hydroelectric power is the largest contributor to electricity generation, accounting for 58.6% of total generation in 2017.
• Natural gas and coal are also significant, with coal contributing 9.2% of generation and natural gas 9.6%.
• Non-hydro renewable sources (wind, solar, biomass) contribute a small portion, with wind at 4.7% and solar at 0.5%.
• CO₂ emissions per capita in Canada have remained relatively stable over the decades, despite population growth and increased economic activity.

4. Emissions Intensity and Energy Efficiency

• CO₂ emissions per $1,000 GDP decreased from 0.67 tCO₂ in 1965 to 0.29 tCO₂ in 2019.
• Energy intensity (MWh per $1,000 GDP) also declined, from 3.517 to 2.036.
• However, overall emissions and energy use have continued to increase due to economic expansion and population growth.

5. Kaya Identity and Emission Reduction Pathways

• The Kaya Identity outlines the factors influencing CO₂ emissions: population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, and carbon intensity.
• To meet emission reduction targets, Canada must significantly improve energy efficiency and decarbonize its energy mix.
• The document suggests that replacing coal with renewables and gas can reduce emissions by 26-40%, while nuclear power could reduce them by 75% or more.

6. Cost Estimates

• Reducing emissions by 40% using renewables and gas would cost approximately $1.4 billion annually.
• Using nuclear power for 75%+ reduction could cost up to $1.9 billion annually, though this option is not currently considered feasible.
• Based on Alberta's electricity system, reducing emissions by 7.4% nationally would require $16.8 to $33.7 billion annually, representing 1-2% of Canada's GDP.

7. Challenges of Renewable Energy

• Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are intermittent, requiring backup generation or storage solutions.
• Storage is limited to hydroelectric reservoirs and utility-scale batteries, with the latter being expensive and not yet widely deployed.
• Pumped hydro storage is costly and requires suitable sites, which are not easily available.
• The document highlights the unaccounted costs of renewable energy, including land use, transmission infrastructure, environmental and health impacts, and waste management.

8. Future Outlook and Policy Implications

• The electricity sector must be overhauled to eliminate fossil fuel generation and electrify other sectors like transportation and manufacturing.
• Electric vehicles and renewable energy subsidies will increase electricity demand, necessitating a more sustainable and resilient grid.
• The conservative national estimates do not include the costs of intermittency, backup capacity, or other externalities, suggesting the real cost could be even higher.

Key Information

• CO₂ emissions in 2019 were 556.2 Mt, up from 542.7 Mt in 2005, representing a 2.5% increase.
• Alberta's electricity system is used as a case study for analyzing emission reduction potential.
• Nuclear power is seen as a high-potential solution for deep emission cuts, but not yet feasible due to cost and public opposition.
• Intermittency of renewables like wind and solar poses a major challenge, requiring backup systems and storage.
• The goal of 100% renewable electricity generation is deemed infeasible due to high costs and reliability concerns.
• The electricity sector is a key target for emission reductions, though it accounts for only one-quarter of global emissions.

Conclusion

The document concludes that while Canada's climate policy is ambitious, the transition to renewable energy and the elimination of fossil fuels in the electricity sector will be costly and technically challenging. It emphasizes the need for backup capacity, storage, and policy support to achieve the desired emission reductions, while also highlighting the limitations of current models and the importance of considering all associated costs.