2015年-ECB欧洲央行_Country-specific_recommendations_for_fiscal_policies_under_the_2015_European_Semester_3页_195kb

Box 7: Recent Developments in Euro Area Food Prices

Core Content

This box provides an analysis of recent trends in food price inflation within the euro area, focusing on how these developments have influenced the overall inflation rate. It highlights the role of both unprocessed and processed food prices in the inflation pattern, emphasizing the impact of specific factors such as seasonal variations, international commodity prices, and policy measures.

Main Points

• Food prices reinforce energy-driven inflation: Recent food price developments have contributed to the inflation pattern in the euro area, which has been largely driven by energy prices. This is evident in both the decline and recovery of food price inflation observed in 2014 and early 2015.

• Unprocessed food price inflation is highly volatile: The main driver of unprocessed food price inflation is fruit and vegetable prices. These prices declined significantly in mid-2014 (to nearly -3%) and rebounded to around 2% in mid-2015. Seasonal factors and weather conditions have played a key role in these fluctuations.

• Processed food price inflation is influenced by different factors:

  • Tobacco prices: An increase in the contribution from tobacco prices in early 2015 partially explains the upturn in processed food inflation.
  • International commodity prices: While international prices affect processed food, EU internal market prices (farm gate) are more relevant for consumer prices.
  • Dairy prices: A decline in dairy prices since 2014 has exerted downward pressure on processed food inflation, with the Russian ban on EU food imports exacerbating this effect.

• Special factors affecting food prices:

  • Russian ban on EU food imports: Implemented in mid-2014, this ban has had a negative impact on both unprocessed and processed food prices. It has prevented a stronger recovery in food prices and affected products such as apples and dairy.
  • EU milk output quotas expiration: The abolition of milk quotas in March 2015 led to increased production by EU farmers, resulting in excess supply and downward pressure on dairy prices.
  • Support measures: The European Commission introduced support measures for perishable fruits and vegetables, which helped mitigate the negative impact of the Russian ban.

Key Information

• Headline inflation: Food price developments have reinforced the inflation pattern driven by energy prices in recent quarters.
• Unprocessed food prices: Showed a significant decline from ~5% in mid-2013 to ~-3% in mid-2014, followed by a rebound to ~2% in mid-2015.
• Processed food prices: The upturn in early 2015 was partly due to increased tobacco price contributions and international commodity price movements, though EU internal market prices have been more influential.
• Volatility and base effects: The rebound in food price inflation in early 2015 was supported by significant base effects, but food price inflation remains low compared to historical levels.
• Current constraints: Special factors such as the Russian embargo and dairy oversupply continue to limit price increases in the euro area.

Charts Summary

• Chart A: Contribution of food price developments to HICP inflation (annual percentage changes). Highlights the pattern of decline and recovery in food prices.
• Chart B: Annual percentage changes in unprocessed food price inflation. Shows the decline and rebound in unprocessed food prices.
• Chart C: Intra-annual pattern of euro area fruit and vegetable prices. Demonstrates the seasonal and historical variations in these prices.
• Chart D: Annual percentage changes in processed food price inflation. Highlights the role of tobacco and other components.
• Chart E: Developments in EU internal market prices. Illustrates the decline in dairy and food prices since 2014.

Conclusion

Recent food price developments in the euro area have played a significant role in the overall inflation pattern, especially in the context of energy price fluctuations. However, food price inflation remains relatively low, with special factors such as the Russian ban and dairy oversupply limiting upward trends. Understanding these dynamics is essential for assessing the sustainability of the inflation rebound.