2014年-ECB欧洲央行_Country-specific_recommendations_for_fiscal_policies_under_the_2014_European_Semester_4页_208kb

报告摘要

2014 European Semester Fiscal Policy Recommendations Summary

Core Content

The 2014 European Semester concluded on 8 July 2014 with the adoption of country-specific fiscal policy recommendations for 26 non-programme EU countries, excluding Cyprus and Greece. These recommendations were based on the Stability and Convergence Programmes submitted by member states by mid-April 2014 and aimed to ensure compliance with the reinforced Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The recommendations had direct implications for the draft budgetary plans for 2015, which were to be submitted by mid-October 2014.

Main Points

Structural Efforts and Compliance: According to the European Commission's spring forecast, the structural efforts of euro area countries in 2014 were insufficient to meet their SGP commitments. The euro area's structural effort in 2014 was expected to be about 0.15% of GDP, turning negative in 2015 at -0.11% of GDP, far below the required 0.5% of GDP.
Non-Compliance Risks: Only Germany and Estonia were deemed to have fully compliant budgetary plans for 2014. The Commission requested eight euro area countries to take additional measures to meet their SGP commitments. Nine countries were specifically called upon to reinforce or significantly strengthen their budgetary strategies in 2014.
Country-Specific Recommendations:
- Preventive Arm: Countries not at the Medium-Term Budgetary Objective (MTO) were required to improve their structural balance. The MTO is defined as a structural balance close to balance or in surplus.
- Corrective Arm (EDP): Countries under EDP were advised to address the risk of not meeting their structural targets. For example, Ireland was required to implement a corrected EDP by 2015, and Spain was advised to reinforce its budgetary strategy as of 2014.
- Debt Rule: Countries with debt above 60% of GDP must reduce it by one twentieth per year after a transition period.
Consolidation Gap: The euro area as a whole was expected to have a consolidation gap of 0.6% of GDP in 2015 compared to SGP requirements.

Key Implications for 2015 Budgetary Plans

Compliance with SGP: The draft budgetary plans for 2015 must include measures to ensure compliance with the 2014 recommendations. This includes addressing the consolidation gap and aligning with the MTO deadlines.
Fiscal Surveillance: The "two-pack" regulations introduced a new element of fiscal surveillance by requiring the review of draft budgetary plans. This mechanism is crucial for identifying and addressing fiscal imbalances early.
Consistency and Specificity: For the reinforced fiscal governance framework to be effective, the country-specific recommendations must be consistent over time and across countries, and sufficiently specific to avoid "moving targets".

Summary of Country-Specific Recommendations (Table A)

Country	SGP Commitment (2014)	SGP Commitment (2015)	Spring Forecast (2014)	Spring Forecast (2015)	Consolidation Gap (2014)	Consolidation Gap (2015)	Recommendation for 2014	Recommendation for 2015
Belgium	0.5%	0.6%	0%	-0.2%	-0.5%	-0.8%	Reinforce	Significantly strengthen
Germany	at MTO	at MTO	-0.2%	-0.4%	at MTO	at MTO	Ensure adherence to MTO	-
Estonia	0%	0.5%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.7%	Reinforce	Significantly strengthen
Italy	0.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.6%	-0.6%	Reinforce	Significantly strengthen
Latvia	0%	0.4%	-0.5%	-0.4%	0.1%	-0.1%	Preserve sound position	Strengthen
Luxembourg	at MTO	0%	-0.8%	-1.9%	at MTO	-1.8%	Preserve sound position	Significantly strengthen
Netherlands	0.5%	0.5%	0%	0.5%	-0.5%	0%	Reinforce	Significantly strengthen
Austria	0.6%	0.6%	-0.1%	0.1%	-0.7%	-0.5%	Reinforce	Significantly strengthen
Slovakia	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%	0.4%	-0.3%	0.3%	Reinforce	Ensure required adjustment
Finland	0%	0.1%	-0.3%	0.6%	-0.3%	0.5%	Limit gap to MTO	Implement plan
Malta	0.7%	0.6%	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.6%	-0.7%	Correct EDP	Significantly strengthen
Ireland	1.9%	1.9%	1.7%	0.4%	n.a.	n.a.	Fully implement correct EDP	-
Portugal	1.4%	0.5%	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	Implement necessary revised strategy	-
Slovenia	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.3%	-0.3%	Reinforce [...] for 2014 and beyond	-
Spain	0.8%	0.8%	0.4%	-1.1%	-0.4%	-1.9%	Reinforce the budgetary strategy as of 2014	-

Summary of MTO Deadlines (Table B)

Country	2013 Recommendation	2014 Government Plan	2014 Recommendation	MTO
Germany	- (at MTO)	MTO maintained	Maintain MTO	-0.5
Latvia	- (at MTO)	MTO maintained	Maintain MTO	-1
Estonia	- (at MTO)	MTO maintained	2015*	>0
Finland	- (at MTO)	2015	2015*	-0.5
Luxembourg	2013	2016	Remain at MTO	0.5
Italy	2014	2016	2015	0
Netherlands	2015	2015	2015	-0.5
Austria	2015	2016	2015	-0.45
Belgium	2016	2017	-	0.75
France	2016	2017	-	0
Portugal	2017	2017	-	-0.5
Slovenia	2017	2017	-	0
Slovakia	2017	2017	-	-0.5
Spain	2018	2017	-	0
Ireland	2018	2018	-	0
Malta	2019	2018	-	0

Conclusion

The 2014 European Semester fiscal policy recommendations emphasize the need for fiscal consolidation and compliance with SGP commitments. They highlight the importance of consistent and specific budgetary strategies to ensure the effectiveness of the reinforced fiscal governance framework. The recommendations also underscore the role of early review mechanisms in identifying and addressing fiscal imbalances before they become critical.

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