2017年-ECB欧洲央行_Country-specific_recommendations_for_fiscal_policies_under_the_2017_European_Semester_4页_153kb

2017 European Semester Fiscal Policy Recommendations Summary

Core Content

The European Commission issued country-specific recommendations (CSRs) for fiscal and economic policies for all EU Member States except Greece on 22 May 2017, and these were finalized and approved by the respective countries' economics and finance ministers on 16 June 2017. The recommendations are part of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) implementation and are intended to ensure compliance with the SGP rules. These recommendations are scheduled to be endorsed by the European Council on 22–23 June 2017 and published in mid-July 2017.

Main Objectives

• Ensure compliance with the SGP.
• Promote sustainable public finances in the euro area.
• Reflect structural adjustment requirements in 2018 draft budgetary plans.
• Provide guidance for governments on fiscal policy for the next 12–18 months.

Key Findings

Budgetary Position and Structural Adjustments

• The euro area as a whole has improved its budgetary position, but progress toward sustainable public finances is uneven across countries.
• Eight countries (Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands) have achieved their medium-term budgetary objectives (MTOs) in 2016, which will help reduce government debt and increase economic resilience.
• However, other countries are falling short of SGP structural adjustment requirements, despite improving economic conditions.
• These shortfalls delay fiscal buffers and increase vulnerability to future economic downturns.

Structural Adjustment Requirements

• For countries with deficits above 3% of GDP, such as France and Spain, the Commission does not expect significant structural adjustment between 2017 and 2018.
• The structural adjustment requirements for some countries have been reduced due to flexibility provisions that allow for structural reforms, additional investment, and refugee-related costs.
• The average structural adjustment requirement for 2017 is 12% of GDP, and it is expected to increase to 14% in 2018 due to lower flexibility.
• Despite this, these countries are expected to pursue expansionary fiscal policies of 0.3% of GDP, which could further deteriorate their structural balance.

Changes in the 2017 Recommendations

1. Fiscal Guidance Format:

   • The recitals of the recommendations now specify the size of structural adjustments, rather than the enacting parts.
   • The enacting parts are intended to provide clear ex-ante guidance to governments, parliaments, and the public, as well as serve as a basis for ex-post assessments.
   • It is important that fiscal guidance is fully incorporated into 2018 draft budgetary plans.

2. Fiscal Stance for Countries with Structural Adjustment Requirements ≥0.5% of GDP:

   • For all such countries, the recitals emphasize that the assessment of 2018 budgets should consider a fiscal stance that supports both economic recovery and public finance sustainability.
   • This could imply additional reductions in structural adjustment requirements beyond those already granted under the existing flexibility provisions.

Specific Country Examples

Key Notes

• The structural adjustment requirements are based on the country-specific recommendations (CSRs).
• The European Commission has decided against opening EDPs for Belgium and Finland in 2016 due to mitigating factors.
• For Portugal, the EDP was abrogated by its 2016 deadline.
• The assessment of debt compliance for Italy will be reassessed in 2018 based on the draft budgetary plan and the Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast.
• The SGP's debt rule is complex due to frequent amendments and interpretations, making consistent application across countries and over time challenging.
• The credibility of the SGP depends on the consistent and legally sound implementation of its rules by both the European Commission and the Council.

Conclusion

The 2017 European Semester fiscal policy recommendations aim to strengthen fiscal discipline and ensure long-term sustainability of public finances in the euro area. While some countries have made positive progress, others are still struggling with structural adjustments. The revised format of the recommendations and the emphasis on fiscal stance reflect a shift towards more nuanced and forward-looking guidance. The effective enforcement of the SGP remains crucial for maintaining the credibility and coherence of the fiscal framework.