20180102-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_8页_627kb

报告摘要

Equity Research Summary: Dim Sum Express (Jan 2, 2018)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of key Hong Kong equities, focusing on investment strategies, sector performance, and specific company insights. It highlights the potential impact of a new policy on the tradability of H shares and evaluates several stocks for their investment potential based on financial performance, market trends, and valuation.

Key Index Performance

HK Ticker	Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700	TENCENT	406.0	-0.54	51.9	0.04
1398	ICBC	6.3	-0.47	10.3	-0.05
939	CCB	7.2	0.42	18.5	0.46
857	PETROCHINA	5.5	-0.55	69.9	-0.40
941	CHINA MOBILE	79.3	1.34	50.5	1.14
5	HSBC	80.0	-0.06	51.6	0.23
2318	PING AN	81.4	-0.31	20.9	-0.24
3988	BANK OF CHINA	3.8	0.79	12.2	0.99
2628	CHINA LIFE	24.6	0.20	6.9	-2.86
386	SINOPEC	5.7	0.00	73.4	0.10

Tencent saw a slight decline in both local and ADR markets.
China Mobile and Bank of China showed positive performance.
ICBC and HSBC experienced small declines.
The ADRs had mixed performance with HSCEI and MXCN showing positive daily changes.

Investment Strategy: Fully Tradable H Shares

A new pilot scheme allows up to three H shares to become fully tradable in Hong Kong.
The policy aims to improve the overseas listing system and align major shareholders' interests with the company.
Restricted H shares account for 67% of all issued shares, with a total market cap of HK$7.2tn.
Pure H shares are more likely to convert than dual-listed H shares, as the latter are more exposed to A-share valuations.
The policy could lead to a re-rating of relevant stocks due to better alignment of interests.

Potential Winners in the Pilot Scheme

China Huarong (2799 HK) and China Cinda (1359 HK): Distressed asset management and debt restructuring.
ZA Online (6060 HK): Innovative business model.
Legend Holdings (3396 HK): Engagement in innovative consumption/services and SOE reform.
ASMC (3355 HK): Semiconductor business.
China Longyuan (916 HK), Huaneng Renewables (958 HK), Datang Renewables (1798 HK): Green energy focus.
CMEC (1829 HK): Exposure to the "One Belt, One Road" initiative.

Sector Analysis

Utilities

Natural Gas: Despite short-term price fluctuations, the mid/long-term trend of coal-to-gas substitution remains on track.
Solar: Full-year installations likely exceeded 50GW. 2018 may see flat or slight growth due to a high base.
Wind Power: Curtailment rates have dropped significantly, suggesting flat installations over the next three years.
PPP Regulation: Tightening regulations may reduce new contract volume in the next 2-3 years, but certain subsectors like hazardous waste treatment, biomass power generation, and water supply are still favorable.
Recommended Stocks: China Water Affairs (855 HK), China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK).

Risks

Natural gas: Policy execution shortfall, oil price decline, supply shortage.
Wind power: Subsidy issues, curtailment rate sustainability, tariff cuts.
Environmental: Project delays, intensified competition.
Solar: Lower-than-expected capacity installations, cost reductions, technological risks.

Company Insights

CRRC (1766 HK, Buy)

Strong new orders in Q4 2017, especially for EMU and urban transit vehicles.
Expected 22% YoY net profit growth in 2018.
Trading at 13.7x 2018E P/E.
Target Price: HK$9.9 (17x 2018E P/E).

CRRC TE (3898 HK, Buy)

Rail maintenance vehicles segment shows strong momentum.
Revenue and net profit forecasts raised due to increased traction system and maintenance vehicle deliveries.
Target Price upgraded to HK$60.2 (16.5x 2018E P/E).
Key Risks: High dependence on CRC procurement, delays in projects, and ASP pressure.

Xtep (1368 HK, Buy)

Share repurchase plan signals management confidence in a 2018 turnaround.
Could repurchase ~49.2m shares (5.5% of free float).
Target Price: HK$15.2 (12x 2018E P/E).
Key Risks: BMW's China strategy, interest rate increases, weak end-market demand.

Yongda Auto (3669 HK, Buy)

Expected revenue and net profit growth of 18.9%, 13.7%, and 5.2% YoY for 2017-2019.
After-sales service and auto finance revenue growing faster.
Target Price: HK$15.2 (12x 2018E P/E).
Key Risks: BMW's strategy mistakes, interest rate hikes, weak demand.

Haier Electronics (1169 HK, Buy)

Key white goods ASP increased sharply, and market share expanded.
Expected steady net profit growth of 15-20% annually over 2-3 years.
Current P/E is undervalued compared to peers (13.0x vs. 17.2x).
Target Price: HK$26.7 (16x 2018E P/E).
Key Risks: Rising raw material costs, weak demand, aggressive price cuts by competitors, currency volatility.

Rating Definitions

Rating	Description
Buy	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%
Sector Ratings
Positive	Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Analyst Certification & Disclosure

Analysts certify that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal opinions.
No direct or indirect compensation linked to specific recommendations.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold shares of the mentioned securities.
Xinte Energy (1799 HK) is a client of GF Securities (Hong Kong), and the firm may receive future compensation or mandates for investment banking services. This could create a potential conflict of interest.