20171115-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_5页_520kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of key market indices, Hong Kong ADRs, and sector outlooks for the Chinese insurance, securities, and property markets in 2018. It includes investment recommendations for specific companies and highlights the macroeconomic and regulatory factors influencing these sectors.

Key Market Indices Performance

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	17E EPS (%)	18E EPS (%)	17E P/E	18E P/E
HSI	-0.1	2.4	32.5	13.2	12.2	13.2	12.2
HSCEI	-0.7	0.7	23.5	8.9	8.1	8.9	8.1
MXCN	-0.7	2.2	50.9	15.5	13.5	15.5	13.5
SHSZ300	-0.7	4.5	23.8	15.7	13.7	15.7	13.7
SHCOMP	-0.5	1.2	10.5	14.9	13.2	14.9	13.2
INDU	-0.1	2.4	18.5	18.7	17.1	18.7	17.1
SPX	-0.2	1.0	15.2	22.7	19.3	22.7	19.3
CCMP	-0.3	2.0	25.2	54.5	24.0	54.5	24.0
UKX	0.0	-1.6	3.8	14.1	15.0	14.1	15.0
NKY	-0.7	5.0	16.2	19.0	16.9	19.0	16.9

Hong Kong ADRs Performance

HK Ticker	Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700	TENCENT	388.0	0.10	49.1	-2.11
1398	CBC	6.1	-0.49	15.6	-1.45
857	PETROCHINA	5.4	-1.28	68.6	-2.27
939	CCB	6.8	-0.59	17.1	-1.33
941	CHINA MOBILE	78.6	-1.26	50.8	-0.76
5	HSBC	75.2	-0.66	48.3	0.12
2318	PING AN	75.5	-0.13	19.4	-1.53
3988	BANK OF CHINA	3.8	-0.52	12.1	-1.22
2628	CHINA LIFE	26.8	-1.47	17.0	-2.35
386	SINOPEC	5.6	-1.57	71.7	-2.50

Sector Outlooks

Insurance Sector

Positive Outlook: Favorable regulatory and macro conditions for leading HK-listed life insurers.
Key Drivers:
- Concerns about the 2018 "jump-start" season have been alleviated.
- Improved business quality in terms of premium structure and new business margins (NBM).
- Rising 750D-MA for the 10Y government bond will reduce required reserves and increase accounting profit.
- Tax-deferred pension plans are expected to contribute significantly to sector premiums over the long term.
Recommendations:
- Buy on all major China life insurance companies: Ping An (2318 HK), China Life (2628 HK), CPIC (2601 HK), and NCI (1336 HK).
- Enhanced regulation benefits leading life insurers the most.

Securities Sector

Positive Outlook: Strong growth potential for the China securities sector, especially for HK-based Chinese securities companies.
Key Drivers:
- Asset management, interest income, and proprietary trading are increasing revenue contributions.
- Larger players have more stable financial performance.
- HKEx's "Connect" strategy and growing demand for overseas asset allocation will benefit HK-based brokers.
Recommendations:
- Buy on large and well-diversified brokers: CITIC (6030 HK) and HTSC (6886 HK).
- Haitong International (665 HK) and Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) are highlighted as top picks due to their improved business quality and diversification.

Property Sector

Continued Down-Cycle: NBS data for October 2017 show a continued decline in primary residential property sales area and revenue.
Key Findings:
- Primary residential GFA sold dropped 9% YoY and 18% MoM to 121m sqm.
- Property sales revenue fell 3% YoY to Rmb909bn.
- Ongoing restrictive policies and high contract sales base in 2017 are expected to lead to declining contract sales in 2018.
Recommendations:
- Prefer developers likely to exceed sales and earnings consensus.
- Favor land-owners in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Bay Area.
- Top picks: Gemdale P&I (535 HK) and Yuexiu Property (123 HK), both expected to significantly outperform market expectations in 2018.

Company-Specific Highlights

Yuexiu Property (123 HK, Buy)

Sold 67% interest in two Wuhan commercial properties to Yuexiu REIT (405 HK) for Rmb2.28bn, generating a one-off gain of Rmb400m.
Management expects to dispose more non-Guangzhou commercial property projects in 2018.
Trading at 0.5x 2017E NBV, considered cheap with a strong land bank in the Guangdong-HK-Macau Bay Area.
Target price: HK$2.60 (1.0x 2018E NBV).

CR Pharma (3320 HK, Buy)

Included in the MSCI China index, leading to a sustained valuation premium.
Signed a distribution agreement with Beigene for three blockbuster products (Abraxane, Revlimid, Vidaza), expected to be earnings accretive.
Target price: HK$11.10 (17.4x FY18E P/E), higher than the distribution sector average of 14.0x.

Rating Definitions

Rating	Definition
Buy	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate	Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

Analyst Certification and Disclosure

The views expressed in the report reflect the personal views of the analysts.
No part of the analysts' remuneration is directly or indirectly linked to the recommendations in the report.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliated companies do not hold any shares in the mentioned securities.
No investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned in the past 12 months.
Analysts have no financial interests in the securities discussed.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
It is intended solely for clients of GF Securities (Hong Kong).
Recipients should be aware that investments involve risks and past performance does not guarantee future results.
The report is not a substitute for professional advice.

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